The San Francisco Giants sign Matt Chapman to a 3-year Deal
San Francisco, CA (PSF) — The San Francisco Giants, after months of speculation and rumors connecting them to Third Baseman Matt Chapman, finally agreed to a deal with him Friday evening. First on the report was MLB Network & New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
It’s another pillow deal for a Boras client, with Chapman getting a lower average annual value (AAV) than most people were anticipating. Chapman will make $20 million in 2024, with opt-outs after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Whether it’s a one-year, two-year, or three-year deal will correspond with how Chapman plays in San Francisco.
This deal is unique in the sense that the average annual value decreases over the lifespan of the contract, as the standard pillow deal usually increases with value per year or stays consistent. Overall, it’s an extremely team-friendly deal that gives both the Giants and Chapman future flexibility. It was anticipated that Chapman would likely receive a 9-figure deal for his past work and achievements, so for the Giants to acquire him on such a team-friendly deal is a win for both the organization and the team’s strength.
Chapman, 30 (and will turn 31 in April), has experience with many of the prominent figures in the Giants organization: Giants President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi, who drafted him to the Oakland Athletics in 2014 as the Assistant General Manager, and current Giants Manager Bob Melvin, who he played under in Oakland from 2017-2021. These connections made the potential quite obvious, even if the roster fit wasn’t as clear.
This free agency match has been in the works since as early as November 15th, 2023, according to Jon Heyman, and now Chapman joins a Giants team that has been revamped and significantly improved through a strong offseason acquisition class that includes KBO Star Jung-Hoo Lee, slugger Jorge Soler, former CY-Young Award Winner Robbie Ray, flamethrower Jordan Hicks, and strong-hitting veteran catcher Tom Murphy.
Chapman is a one-time All-Star (2019), a two-time Platinum Glove Winner, and a four-time Gold Glove Winner. He holds a career .240/.329/.461 (.790 on-base + slugging) slash line with 155 home runs in 7 MLB seasons. He has accumulated 31.2 wins above replacement (WAR) and has a career 117 OPS+ (on-base + slugging plus), meaning he has been 17% better than the average MLB hitter for his career (average = 100 OPS+).
2023 was a difficult season for Chapman offensively. He started off the season with a torrid April that won him Player of the Month, hitting an absurd .384/.465/.687, but struggled from that point forward hitting just .205 the second half of the season. He dealt with an injury to his middle finger on his throwing hand during the season and never regained his early offensive form. Overall, he slashed .240/.330/.424, good for a .754 on-base plus slugging (OPS), the second-worst OPS of his career.
However, Chapman’s defensive work earned him the fourth Gold Glove of his career and he was still 4.4 wins above replacement (WAR) on the year, which was the third highest of his career.
Even with Chapman’s struggles in 2023, he still is a clear upgrade over the Giants’ current third baseman J.D. Davis.
In 2023, although Davis hit for a slightly higher average and hit one more home run than Chapman, Chapman has a far better track record of being a power threat. Chapman hit 27 home runs from 2021-2022, and 36 in 2019, while Davis’s career high in home runs came in 2019 at 22 home runs.
Chapman is also just more valuable overall on the Diamond. While Davis is a good player and improved as a defender in 2023, he was still worth —0.8 defensive WAR (wins above replacement), while Chapman posted a 1.6 defensive WAR in 2023 while posting a still solid 3.1 offensive WAR.
A trade will likely be in the works now. The Giants have a glut of corner infielders with Chapman in the mix, and there is a high possibility that J.D. Davis is traded in the coming weeks, or even days.
Chapman not only raises the ceiling for the Giants at the hot corner, but raises the floor as well.
Matt Chapman’s Advanced Analytics. SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Chapman has always had, and still has, some swing and miss to his game, but has above-average plate discipline with a double-digit walk rate and a low chase rate (94th percentile). He hits the ball hard, as his average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage all sit in the 96th percentile or better, which always bodes well for hitters, even if they struggle.
If Chapman continues to hit the ball hard, he should see some positive regression and a stronger offensive season in 2024. Plus, as always, he will be a strong defender and a fantastic fit at third base for a Giants pitching staff that was first in the MLB in ground ball rate in 2023 (48.7 percent).
In the grand scheme of things, Chapman fits the vision of potential acquisitions that Giants President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi had going into the 2024 offseason: he significantly improves their defense, will add power to the middle of the Giants lineup, and adds athleticism with his 80th percentile sprint speed.
Interestingly, the Giants may not be done. They are “still in” on 2023 NL Cy-Young Award Winner Blake Snell, whose potential addition would likely conclude an extremely successful Giants offseason, even with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto joining the Division Rival Dodgers for over $1 billion combined.
Even with or without the Giants adding Blake Snell, the Giants being able to land Matt Chapman on a team-friendly, affordable deal is a major win for the organization. If they add Snell to that mix as well, the Giants will have the potential to make a serious run at the playoffs in 2024, barring good health and positive return value from their additions.
