Free Agent Profile: Cody Bellinger
It has been a fascinating MLB career for the once-MVP Cody Bellinger.
By age 28, Bellinger has already experienced the lowest lows of his MLB career, bracketed by two different types of breakout performances. The earlier one came in his 2017 rookie campaign, where he blasted 39 home runs as the bona-fide National League Rookie of the Year. Two years later, he’d win the National League MVP, putting up an absurd .305/.406/.629/1.035 slash line over 661 plate appearances, belting 47 home runs and driving in 115 runners. All in total, he was worth 8.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that year.
However, injuries, a gaping hole in his swing mechanics, and enormous expectations led to three straight years of struggles. From 2020-2022, Bellinger was worth 1.0 WAR. After a clutch home run during the 2020 postseason, a home-run celebration with teammatte Kike Hernandez was the alleged cause of a bad shoulder injury that seemed to inhibit Bellinger significantly, and led to a career worst season.
In 2021, at just age 25, many baseball fans were calling Bellinger the worst hitter in the league after he slashed an abysmal .165/.240/.302 in 350 plate appearances, and was a complete net negative in all facets of the game. In 2022, he improved from the worst hitter in baseball to one of the worst hitters in baseball.
Following the 2022 season, Bellinger entered free agency with vexing uncertainties and nerve-racking struggles, but with a sky-high ceiling that had already been reached just a few years before. He was a risk, but the risk with the most payoff.
His struggles, post-elite-production, made him a risky, but intriguing free agent target last offseason. Preached by agent Scott Boras that his troublesome shoulder was healthy, and that necessary tweaks to his swing were made, the Chicago Cubs bit and signed Bellinger to a 1 year, $12.5 million deal.
On an obvious “prove it” deal, Bellinger proved himself once again — and reinvented himself as a player in the process.
In 2023, he had his highest WAR since his MVP year in 2019, collecting 4.4 total WAR. He graded out as a decent defender, while playing both center field and first base, with some impressive defense highlights throughout the year like this catch against his former team:
He also provided flexibility in the lineup by eliminating the southpaw weakness in his game, posting reverse splits as a hitter with a torrid .337/.388/.596 slash line against left-handed pitching.
Overall, Bellinger completely reinvented himself as a hitter. He posted the highest average of his career (.307), and the lowest strikeout percentage of his career (15.7%), but also cut his walk rate to the second lowest of his career (7.2%). He was more aggressive and free-swinging but was making much more consistent contact and spraying the ball from foul pole to foul pole.
Regardless of his approach adjustments, which are very clear in his new batting stance, his natural power still showed with 26 home runs, as a staple of the heart of the Cubs’ order.
Overall he slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, 97 runs batted in, and 20 steals in 556 plate appearances.
Although Bellinger’s surface-level statistics look great, and his new player archetype is desirable for many teams, the underlying metrics are likely what is delaying Bellinger’s market and prompting teams to have some questions about the sustainability of his performance.
Baseball Savant recorded his average exit velocity at 87.9 MPH, which sits in the 22nd percentile in the MLB. His hard-hit percentage (31.4%) sits in the 10th percentile. His barrel percentage (the percentage of time he hit the ball in the sweet spot of his bat barrel), sat in the 27th percentile at 6.1%. Overall, this led to the statistics weighing his expected slugging percentage, based on these statistics, at .434, almost 100 points lower than his recorded .525 slugging percentage during the 2023 season.
Although these statistics may be offputting, the tape on the field does not lie. He makes much more consistent contact, and his refined approach has limited the holes in his swing. Although the mechanical changes may have made his swing less explosive and more compact, he still hit 26 home runs and used his speed for 30 combined doubles and triples. His effectiveness in seeing both left-handed and right-handed pitching will create immense lineup flexibility and consistency, as he can be in all lineups and hit against all matchups.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Bellinger may wait as long as possible to sign a deal, to maximize the financial figures of his future contract. With many presumed suitors already addressing the center field position, such as the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and San Francisco Giants, and with the Chicago Cubs excited about superstar center-field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong; many wonder where Bellinger could realistically land. The Cubs, Giants, and Blue Jays likely remain suitors, and it has been reported that Bellinger is seeking $200 million plus in his new deal, which all of these teams can afford.
I would guess that Bellinger gets just a shade below that number. I would imagine that he gets a deal similar to Kris Bryant’s 7-year, $180 million deal with the Rockies. For now, the baseball world will await with curiosity as one of the most intriguing MLB free agent’s free agency continues to unfold.
