Is It An Open and Shut Case for A.L. MVP?

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The Best of The Best

At the All-Star break, it seems that Aaron Judge is not just the frontrunner for the American League MVP award but is staking his claim as the best player in the game. With the break in full swing, Judge is putting up numbers that are good for an entire season, let alone halfway through. Through 89 games, he has 33 home runs, 70 RBIs, .983 OPS, and a .284 batting average.

However, despite his incredible season, Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez still leads the American League in RBIs, while Angels star pitcher and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani is sitting on 19 home runs, 56 RBIs, a 9-4 win-loss record, and a 2.38 ERA. Ohtani is looking to win consecutive MVP awards and could do so at his current pace. Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is second in batting average but leads the league in hits at 112. All these players can make their cases for A.L. MVP, but who really is the most valuable?

Taking a deeper dive into the award, the MVP does not go to only the best player, but the player who has been the best and contributed to his team’s success the most. In that regard, Judge does both. The numbers jump off the page and are one of the key factors contributing to the historic season the Yankees are having. According to ESPN, he leads the league in Wins Above Replacement among position players, sitting at 4.4. Adding to that, Judge has spent time at two positions in the outfield, playing both right and center field. The other players in the MVP race mainly or exclusively stick to just one position. While these are all impressive feats for the tall, mighty outfielder, his pure batting numbers like batting average and hits do pale in comparison to Ramirez and Devers.

While the other three have great numbers, it is important to note the flaws they’ve shown this season. Ramirez is great at driving in runs, but his home run total is not where it should be for an MVP. On the flip side, Devers has more home runs than Ramirez and a higher batting average and hits than Judge but is a defensive liability at third base with 12 errors on the season. Ohtani is the worst of the bunch in batting average, but leads all A.L. players in WAR, dominates at the plate and on the mound, and has last year’s award under his belt. His pitching numbers this season are even better than his 2021 campaign. However, the Angels still have not found much success despite his accomplishments.

Each of these all-stars could make a strong second-half push for the MVP, but right now, it seems as though it is Judge’s award to lose.

Beware of the Slump

While Judge’s numbers have earned him the right to be the leader in this MVP race, it is important to note that the late-summer slumps can throw a curveball into the mix. Statistically, Judge’s numbers late in the season tend to cool off, as most players do. In his career, his power numbers, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS tend to dip in July and August because of fatigue and the long, grueling stretch of the season.

Conversely, Ramirez’s power numbers surge late in the season, and in September and October, his career batting average is .301. Like Judge, Devers slumps late in the season, but his power numbers in his career in the late months remain consistent. If this Bronx Bomber wants to win the MVP, he will have to continue on his historic pace and avoid a prolonged slump.

In the last three weeks leading up to the break, his numbers were similar to teammate Joey Gallo, batting well under .200 and searching for answers at the plate. Judge found his groove during last week’s three-game set against the Red Sox and should follow it up after the much-needed rest days and All-Star festivities. As the break comes to a close, the ball is in Judge’s court, and it is up to him to put the case to rest.