One Breakout Player from Each NL West Team’s 2024 Season
Today, we will look at each team in baseball’s National League West division, and identify each team’s top breakout player as we head into the All-Star Break. I’ll go in order of division standings.
Each of the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, and Rockies (in order of division standings) have had one player who has become an important part of the lineup, rotation, or bullpen this season. From slugging outfielders, to flamethrowing right-handed relievers, to a key piece of a rotation, all 5 of these players have left their mark on the roster and will surely be staples of their respective teams for years to come.
(All stats are via baseballsavant, Fangraphs, and mlb.com)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
BREAKOUT PLAYER: GAVIN STONE (SP)
2024 Stats:
17 Games Started
9-3 Record
3.26 Earned Run Average
96.2 Innings Pitched
76 Strikeouts
31.9 Chase Rate (83rd Percentile)
4.8 Barrel Percentage (90th percentile)
34.4 Hard-Hit Percentage (79th Percentile)
1.7 WAR (Wins above replacement)
A 2020 5th Round Pick by the Dodgers out of Central Arkansas, Gavin Stone made his debut last season but struggled immensely by posting 31 earned runs in 31 innings pitched, good for a 9.00 Earned Run Average.
This season, however, Gavin Stone has been a savior for the Dodgers amidst an injury-riddled season for the ballclub’s rotation. With a rare 6-pitch mix, including heavy usage of the Changeup-4 seam fastball-Sinker-Slider quartet, Stone has been effective at providing quality innings for a rotation that desperately needs consistency.
His Changeup (.188 batting average against) and Fastball (.241 batting average against) have become exceptional weapons against left-handed pitching in particular, using the changeup’s tumbling arm side action (15.1 average inches of movement) and his fastball’s natural arm side run (18.0 average inches of movement) to manipulate left-handed hitters on both sides of the plate.
His changeup is his best pitch by far and away, classifying as one of the elite changeups in baseball. With a 33.5 percent whiff rate and a 23.8 percent strikeout rate against it, the changeup is his most dangerous weapon against all types of hitters.
Stone’s slider, is an asset for inducing both weak contact and whiffs and sits as the pitch with the highest whiff percentage in his arsenal at 34.4 percent. The sinker, however, has not been an asset, as opponents are slugging .488 against it. With the natural run of his fastball, which could be considered a 2-seam fastball as well, Stone already has an arm-side fastball asset, and reducing the sinker usage may benefit him.
Although Stone is not necessarily an elite bat-misser, evidenced by his below-average 19.0 percent strikeout rate, his effectiveness at key pitching trends, such as using elite movement to get hitters to make weak contact outside the strike zone, have allowed him to become an extremely effective rotation asset for the Dodgers.
Arizona Diamondbacks
BREAKOUT PLAYER: JUSTIN MARTINEZ (RP)
2024 Stats:
40 games pitched
4-1 record
40 Innings
44 Strikeouts
1.32 Earned Run Average (ERA)
1.14 WHIP
100.1 average fastball velocity
86.0 Avg. Exit Velocity (95th percentile)
33.8 Whiff Percentage (95th percentile)
27.5 strikeout percentage (82nd percentile)
2.0 barrel percentage (99th percentile)
30.3 hard-hit percentage (95th percentile)
65.7 ground ball percentage (99th percentile)
Simply put, Arizona’s 22-year-old flamethrower is a weapon out of their bullpen.
With a Sinker and 4-seam fastball that easily touches triple digits, and a nasty slider/splitter offspeed combination, Martinez is every team’s dream in a high-leverage reliever. He misses bats at an above-average rate, limits hard contact, and keeps balls on the ground.
Arizona can live with his below-average 10.6 walk rate (21st percentile). At 22, he has many years of honing his command in front of him. His ability to miss bats, and induce ground balls, makes those walks a bit more stomachable.
His Sinker, which is his primary pitch at a 45.2 percent usage rate, still has some refining in terms of command. Opponents are hitting .317 against it, albeit with a .317 slugging percentage, meaning all of these hits are singles. A good portion of those hits can be attributed to hitters simply beating the pitch and driving it to where the defense is not. After all, his sinker has yielded only an 87.0 average exit velocity, which is comparable to his 86.0 average exit velocity overall.
His slider is a weapon against right-handed batters, with most of its usage coming against that side. Opponents are hitting just a measly .091 against it, whiffing at a staggering 48.3 percent of the time against it. Although Martinez has only struck out three hitters with the pitch, his ability to induce weak contact with the pitch and get ahead in counts with its 28.9 inches of vertical movement, makes it an effective pitch overall.
His splitter though, is levels above “effective”. It may already be one of the best splitters in the league. Just look at these numbers:
31.9 inches of vertical movement
48.6 whiff percentage
65.2 (!!!) strikeout percentage against
46 plate appearances when used — 30 strikeouts
30.9 PutAway percentage
.093 batting average against
74.4 average exit velocity
Opponents cannot touch this pitch. He throws it against both righties and lefties, and neither can crack the code on how to hit it. It’s simply an elite weapon for both putting hitters away in 2-strike counts and inducing the weakest of weak contact.
That’s nasty.
San Diego Padres
BREAKOUT PLAYER: JEREMIAH ESTRADA (RP)
2024 Stats:
31 Games Pitched
3-1 Record
2.65 ERA
34 innings
54 strikeouts
1.00 WHIP
97.1 average fastball velocity (93rd Percentile)
33.1 chase rate (89th percentile)
36.0 whiff percentage (97th percentile)
39.4 strikeout percentage (99th percentile)
Jeremiah Estrada strikes a lot of batters out. And he’s darn good at it too. A waiver claim from the Chicago Cubs, who struggled last season in limited MLB action (6.75 earned run average), Estrada has blossomed into a high-leverage bullpen weapon for the San Diego Padres.
Equipped with a 4-seam/slider/splitter trio, Estrada misses bats with all three of his pitches, and in unique ways. His fastball, with 9.8 inches of vertical drop, gives hitters a difficult time as this level of vertical movement on fastballs is unprecedented (3.3 inches more than average fastball vert. drop). His splitter (13.5 inches of horizontal run) and slider (5.6 inches of horizontal break) are both above average in terms of movement, giving hitters a 3-pitch mix of incredibly difficult and contrasting movements.
His arsenal gives hitters problems, as evidenced by the chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. His walk rate sits just around league average (7.3), so Estrada isn’t giving out free passes at too high of a rate. Regardless of his staggeringly low ground ball rate (26.0 percent), and the hard contact given up, Estrada’s fastball, splitter, and slider are so overpowering, and have so much violent break that he can simply attack hitters in all parts of the zone.
The arsenal is so good that he was doing things that pitchers hadn’t done since 1961. That’s pretty good, right?
San Francisco Giants
BREAKOUT PLAYER: HELIOT RAMOS (OF)
2024 Stats:
.303/.371/.532 slash line
.903 OPS (on-base + slugging)
231 AB — 14 home runs, 46 runs batted in, 2 stolen bases
3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), 1 Out Above Average (OAA) in Left Field
92.0 MPH Average Exit Velocity (90th percentile)
16.0 Barrel Rate (96th percentile)
51.2 Hard Hit Percentage (94th Percentile)
2.4 WAR
155 Weighted Runs Created + (wRC+)
159 OPS+ (100 = league average)
For the first time in decades, the Giants have developed a homegrown star in their outfield.
Ramos, who was the Giants’ first-round selection in 2017, becomes the youngest Giant to be named an All-Star since 2015, and the first homegrown Giants outfielder to be named to the All-Star team since Chili Davis in 1986.
Since Ramos was called up on May 8th, he ranks 5th among all National League players with 2.4 WAR. His knack for loud contact, his ability to spray the ball to all fields with power, and his solid plate discipline has allowed him to evolve into an elite hitter and a steadying presence for the middle of the Giants’ order.
Heliot Ramos’s Spray Chart (Chart via Baseballsavant)
His defense has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants. Although his numbers in Center Field leave a little to be desired, it is not his natural position, and he will play a corner outfield spot when Jung-Hoo Lee returns in 2025. From a corner outfield spot, the metrics rate well (as I mentioned earlier), and he has an above-average arm that can be used as a threat from a corner outfield spot.
Ramos mashes fastballs — he hits .333 against them, slugs .547, and has hit 7 of his 14 home runs against them. Usually, a hitter has one type of pitch that they struggle against, but Ramos has hit solidly against the other pitch types as well. Against breaking pitches, he has hit .265, slugged .470, and hit 4 home runs, and against offspeed pitches, he has hit .276, slugged .552, and hit 2 home runs.
Ramos’s one knock as a hitter is the strikeouts. He has a 27.0 percent strikeout rate, sitting in just the 19th percentile, and a slightly below-average chase rate at 28.2 percent. However, he offsets that with an above-average eye which translates to a 9.7 walk percentage.
Ultimately, his power is legitimate. He has the potential to be a perennial 25+ home run hitter each year, and his all-star berth may be the first of many. He could end up being a special player for the Giants for years to come.
Colorado Rockies
BREAKOUT PLAYER: BRENTON DOYLE (OF)
2024 Stats:
331 at-bats
.275/.342/.462 slash line
.804 OPS
14 home runs, 41 runs batted in
111 wRC+
119 OPS+ (100 = league average)
8 Outs Above Average
2 Arm Value (88th percentile)
98.1 average throw velocity (100th percentile)
Brenton Doyle has been an elite defender from the moment he first suited up with the Colorado Rockies. Evidenced by a Gold Glove in his 2023 rookie season, Doyle already provided plenty of value patrolling center field, with a staggering 19 defensive runs saved during that gold glove season.
Whether his bat would ever come around was the question for Doyle heading into this year, after his 2023 season yielded some ugly offensive numbers — a .593 OPS, a 35 percent strikeout rate, a 43 wRC+, and an inability to hit offspeed pitches.
This season has been a revelation for Doyle at the plate, improving in virtually every offensive category, while still playing above-average (albeit slightly worse) defense in center field.
Doyle has improved his walk rate to 8.8 percent this season, slashed his strikeout rate by almost 11 percent to 24.7 percent, and hit the ball harder than ever with his solid barrel rate (10.6 percent) and Sweet-Spot rate (36.7 percent).
His 94th-percentile sprint speed has translated to 20 stolen bases already. Just halfway through the season, Doyle has already set career highs or is on pace to set them. He already has 15 home runs at the time of writing this, and will most definitely eclipse his 2023 stolen base tally of 22.
Although his defense has slightly regressed, in terms of overall impact, his metrics of range and arm strength convey that he will still likely be an elite defender at his ceiling and an above-average one at his floor. He will be a staple of the Rockies for years to come if he continues to improve the way he has, and all-star appearances could come in his future.
