On December 6th, 2022 the MLB held their first ever draft lottery. In standing with the NBA draft lottery, the top three teams all held an equal chance at the number one overall pick. The team that won it, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team with the third worst record in baseball behind the Nationals and A’s.

Obviously winning the number one overall pick in the draft is significant no matter the circumstance, but in this particular draft, climbing from the third overall pick may be as franchise-altering a move as we will see for a while with the lottery.

LSU outfielder Dylan Crews had plenty of hype going into this season, so it looked as though the Pirates had guaranteed at least a chance at him. But what wasn’t known, was that LSU had also acquired another generational talent in pitcher Paul Skenes. Who, once he transitioned to a full-time pitcher after leaving Air Force, would jump his fastball from around 95 mph to around 100 mph and become the best pitcher in the country.

While there is a lot of other great talent in the draft, it seems these two Tigers have separated themselves from the rest of the pack as the two most talented prospects in the draft. Which of course means, had the MLB not decided to start the draft lottery for this specific draft, the Pirates would hold the third pick, and miss out on these two.

Of course with the involvement of money in the MLB draft it is possible that the Pirates go a different direction with the first overall pick. Potentially Wyatt Langford or Max Clark could hear their names called at the top of the draft. However, since the Pirates were able to stumble up to the number one overall pick, let’s take a look at these two LSU phenoms they now have a chance to select.

Dylan Crews:

Out of highschool Crews was maybe one of the most sought after players, by MLB teams and college teams alike. So, when Crews made the now historic decision to forgo the draft and play college baseball at LSU, the whole world felt the Tigers got an absolute steal. 

Then Crews went on to back up the hype, and then some, in all three years at LSU. He held a career .380 batting average with a 1.187 OPS through three years with the Tigers. In his final year at LSU, he hit .426 with a 1.280 OPS, all while playing center field and hitting in the leadoff spot. These numbers got Crews the Golden Spikes award for best amateur baseball player in the nation, and, along with Paul Skenes, led the LSU Tigers to a national championship.

One thing that puts Crews above another uber talented college prospect in Wyatt Langford is that Crews will likely be able to stick in center field in the majors. He has the speed and reactions to have success in one of the most important positions in baseball. 

For the Pirates, Crews could finish out their outfield along with Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski. He would also fit in very well, as one of his biggest strengths is his knowledge of the strike zone. The Pirates are among the league leaders in chase rate in the MLB, and Crews will fit right in with that mold.

One question mark around Crews is that he is asking for around $300k over slot for the number one overall pick, and if the Pirates go a different direction, they could save around $1M to use throughout the rest of the draft. While the Pirates certainly could pay Crews that amount of money, the question is whether or not he is worth the extra million.

Paul Skenes:

After the 2022 season, Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU to further his baseball career. At Air Force Skenes was a two way player and threw in the mid-nineties on the mound. However, after transferring to LSU he was moved to pitching full time. That extra practice on the mound caused his velo to shoot up so he was regularly throwing 100 mph.

With that heat now in his arsenal, Skenes put on a show for the Tigers every time he was on the mound. This past season the 6’6’’ righty put up a 1.69 ERA and broke the LSU strikeout record with 209 strikeouts, while pitching 29 ⅔ innings less than the player in second place.

Skenes’ dominance only rose when the Tigers found themselves in Omaha competing for a national championship. Skenes took home the Men’s College World Series’ Most Outstanding player award over Crews after throwing two absolute gems for the Tigers. His final line in the Mens College World Series was 15.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, and 21 Ks. 

Just like Crews, it was Skenes’ walk numbers that really stood out. His ability to control the location of his pitches while topping out at 102 mph is insanely impressive for a 21 year old. Skenes also has a devastating slider and a changeup in his pitching arsenal that he has shown elite control with.

Skenes’ biggest question mark is his positional durability. He is commonly talked about as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, who was the greatest college pitcher of all time. However, with their position come serious durability concerns. Strasburg himself may be done in the MLB after he was found to have serious nerve damage. Jacob Degrom, maybe the most dominant pitcher the league has ever seen, is watching his career be derailed by injuries season after season. That doesn’t even include prospects like Kumar Rocker whose careers ended before they were even able to begin because of injuries.

Fortunately for Skenes, because he was a two-way player it;s possible his arm hasn’t had as some of these other players, It also helps that Skenes is a 6’6’’ 235 pound beast. Along with that, there is speculation that Skenes may be ready to join the majors right now. This will save his arm from taking any extra toll in the minor leagues. 

If the Pirates do decide to go with one of these two players in the draft on Sunday they will have to answer a lot of questions about what they are looking for in a prospect. However, one thing that isn’t in question, is the potential impact of both of these players on a franchise.