Examining the Trade Fit Between Seattle and St. Louis
Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto (Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)
ST. LOUIS, MO. — As Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto trade rumors swirl around social media, ongoing discussions between the Seattle Mariners (42-43) and St. Louis Cardinals (36-51) have gone relatively unnoticed as both teams float further out of contention.
Today, however, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi provided an update on the preliminary negotiations, stating that St. Louis would be willing to dip into its extensive reservoir of young bats in exchange for one of Seattle’s prized young Starting Pitchers. The Cardinals currently hold the Leagues' 6th-best offense in terms of WRC+ while Seattle ranks as the League’s 17th-best, also carrying the league’s second-worst Strikeout rate at 25% (!). On the Pitching side, the Cardinals' Pitching Staff has worked to the 6th Worst ERA in Major League Baseball, while the Mariners' staff sports the league’s 7th-best. Both clubs' complementary needs align perfectly, and Seattle, 5 GB of the AL’s 3rd Wild Card is in a considerably better position to contend than the St. Louis Cardinals, who sit 11.5 GB of the NL’s 3rd Wild Card.
Let’s start with Seattle, who have an embarrassment of riches both on the Big League roster and in their Farm System when it comes to Starting Pitching. So who might St. Louis be targeting? The Mariners began the year with expensive Free Agent signing Robbie Ray at the helm before he underwent Tommy John Surgery following his first start of 2023. Chris Flexen originally moved into the rotation to pick up the slack in innings, but was unsuccessful and moved to the bullpen, clearing the way for high-level prospects Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo to get some serious run in the big league rotation, to which they’ve been successful up to this point in the year. The Mariners currently carry six Starters on their 40-Man Roster who have started more than 5 games this season:
Luis Castillo 100.1 IP/ 3.05 ERA / 3.89 FIP
Logan Gilbert 101.1 IP/ 3.82 ERA / 3.45 FIP
George Kirby 101.0 IP/ 3.21 ERA / 3.33 FIP
Bryce Miller 59.0 IP/ 3.97 ERA / 3.47 FIP
Marco Gonzales 50.0 IP/ 5.22 ERA/ 4.31 FIP
Bryan Woo 28.2 IP/ 4.08 ERA/ 3.22 FIP
Now, off the bat, we can eliminate Luis Castillo as he was just locked into a 5-year/$108M deal this winter and cost a hefty package of Seattle’s prospects in order to be acquired last July. Marco Gonzales is also probably not on the Cardinals' wish list due to his long injury history and the fact that he was traded to Seattle by St. Louis back in 2017. While George Kirby would likely be of the utmost interest to St. Louis due to his age and controllability, it’s already been reported that he is completely untouchable, and rightfully so given his status as one of Baseball’s best young arms.
Rookie Bryce Miller (Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)
That leaves 26-year-old Logan Gilbert, 24-year-old Bryce Miller and 23-year-old Bryan Woo as potential options the Cardinals may be negotiating after. There is another option however, as former top-100 prospect and 5th Overall Pick Emerson Hancock (5.30 ERA over 73 innings pitched at AA) sits as another tradeable asset in the Mariners system.
Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto is no stranger to shaking up his Major League roster in a time of need, but he is also incredibly smart when it comes to holding prospects and picking and choosing who he offers up. It truly depends on who the St. Louis Front Office duo of John Mozeliak and Mike Girsch are willing to put on the table. “Young position players” could apply to just about anybody outside of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado when it comes to St. Louis, and they have been no stranger to floating them in deals in the past. Recent unsuccessful negotiations for big names such as Juan Soto, Sean Murphy and Pablo Lopez have seen the Cardinals put Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman and even super-prospect Jordan Walker on the table in discussions. Assuming the Mariners are interested in similarly controllable players to the four mentioned above, here are what I’ve identified as potentially suitable names in these negotiations:
UTL Brendan Donovan .288 BA/ .797 OPS/ 14.4 K%/ 2.0 fWAR
UTL Tommy Edman .237 BA/ .694 OPS/ 16.3 K%/ 1.2 fWAR
OF Dylan Carlson .245 BA/ .715 OPS/ 21.0 K%/ 0.3 fWAR
IF Nolan Gorman .232 BA/ .786 OPS/ 30.2 K%/ 1.4 fWAR
OF Tyler O’Neill (IL) .228 BA/ .620 OPS/ 34.3 K%/ -0.3 fWAR
OF Jordan Walker .286 BA/ .803 OPS/ 21.6 K%/ 0.3 fWAR
1B Alec Burleson .220 BA/ .654 OPS/ 11.2 K%/ -0.5 fWAR
SS Paul DeJong .239 BA/ .759 OPS/ 30.1 k%/ 1.6 fWAR
OF Lars Nootbaar .257 BA/ .745 OPS/ 20.8 K%/ 1.5 fWAR
1B Luken Baker (AAA) .319 BA/ 22 HR/ 60 RBI/ 1.097 OPS
Just about anybody, seriously. Perhaps the amount of options available here speaks to the mismanagement of assets and ignorance of the festering pitching problem by the Cardinals Front Office, but that’s besides the point.
The Cardinals Front Office Brass, John Mozeliak and Michael Girsch
The question is who is Seattle going to try and replace. The Mariners issues begin with strikeouts, particularly in the Outfield as regular starters Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic are striking out over 30% of the time. The Infield is pretty strong defensively between 1B Ty France, 2B Kolten Wong, SS JP Crawford and 3B Eugenio Suarez, but there isn’t much run production coming from the Infield aside from Ty France who’s performance is down from last season but nothing out of the realm of adjustment in the second half of the season. JP Crawford has never been known for his bat, but he carries a .750 OPS and a 1.5 fWar thus far and has firmly entrenched himself as one of the leaders of these young Mariners. 3B Eugenio Suarez has been platooned with UTL man Jose Caballero this season and stands as a solid 3B/DH type, although he is striking out 28% of the time and his trademark Home Run Power has eluded him (9 HR through 85 games) thus far in 2023. That leaves Kolten Wong, who has essentially forgotten how to swing the bat (.156 BA) this season and signed through 2024 at $9M AAV. Wong has spent the majority of his season at Second Base and although on a relatively significant salary, stands to be the most replaceable out of the Infield. In the Outfield, Teoscar Hernandez is on an expiring contract and while it may not be to St. Louis, stands as a possibility to be moved by the deadline.
Former Cardinals 2B Kolten Wong (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Out of the group of Cardinals mentioned above, you can almost certainly eliminate Jordan Walker due to his status as a future-defining prospect, and Lars Nootbaar given the Cardinals’ unwillingness to move him for more valuable assets. Dylan Carlson and Nolan Gorman are definitely options for Seattle but the Cardinals were also unwilling to move either for Sean Murphy and Pablo Lopez this winter. And similar to Marco Gonzales, Tyler O’Neill is likely not of that much interest due to Seattle due to the fact that he was the other half of the 2017 deal between the Mariners and Cardinals.That leaves Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong, Alec Burleson, and Luken Baker– which is still plenty to work with for Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto.
Circling back to the four Mariners (Miller, Woo, Gilbert and Hancock) potentially on the table, Bryce Miller likely represents the playerrswho would bring back the most value for Seattle in terms of position player talen given his age and Rookie status. At 24 Years Old, Miller has flashed signs of brilliance during his Rookie Season but just hit the IL earlier this week due to a blister. Manager Scott Servais stated that Miller ‘wouldn’t pitch for a while” although his innings likely would’ve been limited either way. GM Jerry DiPoto would be well within his rights to ask for either Jordan Walker or Nolan Gorman in exchange for Miller, which essentially makes him untouchable for all intents and purposes. Bryan Woo only has 6 starts under his belt and is likely more of a reason why negotiations between the two clubs have been ongoing in the first place. Logan Gilbert however, is a name that fits the bill as the, controllable, young but polished arm the Cardinals could be looking for. The 6’6” Gilbert has Super-Two status as a Pre-Arbitration player, meaning he has an extra year of control and is not scheduled to hit Free Agency until 2027– perfect for a Cardinals team who’s window is likely just temporarily closed. He is expendable in the long term plans of Mariners due to the presence and success of Miller and Woo, as well as Emerson Hancock whom there is still hope for.
Mariners SP Logan Gilbert (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
A deal involving Logan Gilbert will certainly cost a Major League contributor for the Cardinals, and those talks will almost certainly start with Tommy Edman. Edman’s bat hasn’t been there this season (89 OPS+) but remains a valuable asset as a versatile defender. Edman alone will likely not be enough and the Mariners may ask for AAA Home Run leader Luken Baker or Alec Burleson in a package. Edman is under club control through 2025 and while he represents an upgrade over incumbent Mariners 2B Kolten Wong, it’s likely not what DiPoto is after due to the lofty preseason expectations surrounding Seattle following their first playoff appearance since 2001. Brendan Donovan is likely the guy that balances this deal out. He’s 26 already a Gold Golve Winner in his second season and is under club control through at least 2028. He can also play just about any position on the field and would make both Wong and Suarez expendable due to his high-level defense.
If a deal is consummated, I’m predicting a simple one-for-one swap: Logan Gilbert for Brendan Donovan. It makes sense for both sides, the controllability timeline lines up, and it doesn’t necessarily put a dent in either teams ability to contend this season. If anything, it’s a win-win for both sides. The Mariners fortify their infield offense and the Cardinals free up a spot to give all-world SS Prospect Masyn Winn big league at-bats in a lost season. Jerry DiPoto and John Mozeliak have a lot of poker to play over the next few weeks, but I feel the answer is right there in front of them.
