Cut/Keep: Understanding MLB Roster Decisions
MLB roster decisions are the crux of Spring Training. In my latest article, I look into how teams choose which players to cut, which to keep on their roster, and the long term impact of their short term decision making.
Introduction
Every MLB spring training, veterans are hoping for one final chance at making a big-league roster. Rookies emerge from the minor leagues hoping for that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Then there are the established MLB players who just put in work. MLB Spring Training is the basis for team chemistry within one of the 30 MLB clubhouses that will become one team’s World Series contention. Spring Training is a land of opportunity, and the decisions made in the short term by MLB teams end up as the result of a cemented history that can determine the outlook of a season.
Are Best Players on an MLB Roster?
A common assumption made by MLB fans is that the best players make the roster with the less accomplished sent down. A plethora of factors goes into team decision-making. Therefore, it is never as simple as people make it out to be. Teams can be cold, calculating, and withhold the truth from players. Others are more transparent, telling players their flaws from an uber-candor perspective. Or the middle ground, with some facts left off the table and teams, tell players what they want to hear, aside from the one thing they want to hear. When discussing why players make the MLB or are left off, people must understand that business is business, and organizations make decisions they believe are in their best interest.
Short Term Benefit?
Baseball is a grind. No other professional sports league in the United States is as long as the MLB season, 162 games. Players can help a team in the short run and win some games off talent alone. Or, if a team cares about a player’s long-term interests, they will give tangible and specific feedback on how players can improve in the minors. They can refine their skills with a better chance to succeed when called up to the major leagues. No matter how it is looked at, balancing short-run benefit vs. long-term sustainability is the core argument for understanding MLB decision making.
Baseball=Hindsight
Baseball is predicating upon hindsight, from pulling a pitcher too early or bringing in the wrong reliever in a situation. It is low-hanging fruit to look back at every past MLB decision, look at their outcome, and say in hindsight that the manager should have gone with pitcher x over pitcher y. Roster decisions are the same. Rushing a player’s development could hurt their long-term outlook. If a player is not ready to handle Major League Baseball, the timing is not justified to play Major League Baseball. It can be that simple in some cases. Hindsight is a fascinating tool in sports, and people can get lost in delusions instead of looking at the facts and the outcomes of decisions. Small sample sizes mislead people into believing false narratives and are the opposite of hindsight.
Long Term Sustainability
Results matter. People judge contending teams whether they win a championship or not. Change is impending if a team is not getting the job done within the three-to-five-year duration of a manager and general managers’ contract. Some teams never find the right leaders for their organizations. However, owners tie evaluators to the players they draft and stick by throughout their careers. Small sample sizes make or break players. Short-term success in baseball could mean nothing or mean everything. Finding the right leaders, who understand which players to believe in, is crucial for MLB decision-makers. Therefore, trust and belief are two important baseball traits.
Conclusion
Spring Training is a yearly social experiment that can decide the outcome of a season, even though players do not know it at the time. When a team does not figure out how to win, it comes from a trickle-down effect from the highest-ranking member of the organization to the lowest. Some teams get “lucky” and “luck” into a championship. That means every decision they made taught them something that helped them down the line. However, teams do not “luck” into winning multiple rings. Results are as good as the process. Teams must find the right leaders to ensure the sustainability—and success—of their franchise.