Breaking Down The National League Cy Young Race with 358
As the 2021 season continues to wind down, let’s look into the potential names that will be on the Cy Young ballot come the end of the year. There are familiar names that are going to appear on the ballot this year and many will receive media notoriety, but there are new names that will appear for the 1st time after some great seasons.
Who are The Recent Winners in The National League?
2020 - Trevor Bauer (CIN)* :
2.9 WAR, 5-4, 73.0 IP, 1.73 ERA, 287 ERA+, 2.88 FIP, 0.795 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 100 K, 2.13 xERA, 3.25 xFIP
2019 - Jacob DeGrom (NYM):
7.9 WAR, 11-8, 204.0 IP, 2.43 ERA, 169 ERA+, 2.67 FIP, 0.971 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/, 255 K, 2.43 xERA, 3.11 xFIP
2018 - Jacob DeGrom (NYM):
9.9 WAR, 10-8, 217.0 IP, 1.70 ERA, 218 ERA+, 1.98 FIP, 0.912 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 269 K, 2.25 xERA, 2.60 xFIP
2017 - Max Scherzer (WAS):
7.2 WAR, 16-6, 200.2 IP, 2.51 ERA, 178 ERA+, 2.90 FIP, 0.902 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 268 K, 2.51 xERA, 2.90 xFIP
2016 - Max Scherzer (WAS):
6.2 WAR, 20-7, 228.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 144 ERA+, 3.24 FIP, 0.968 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 284 K, 2.68 xERA, 3.37 xFIP
*= Shortened 60 Game Season due to COVID-19
Understanding Advanced Stats Used for Major League Pitchers
What is WAR?
Wins Above Replacement measures a players value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement level at the same position.
WHIP - Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched
1.00 WHIP = Amazing
1.10 WHIP = Great
1.20 WHIP = Above Average
1.30 WHIP = Average
ERA+ Definition: A player’s ERA that is normalized across the league. Accounts external factors like ballparks pitched in & opponents.
ERA+ Above 100 = Pitching performance better than average
100 ERA+ = League Average
ERA+ Below 100 = Pitching performance below the league average
What is FIP??
FIP in baseball is a statistic that measures a pitchers effectiveness based only on stats that do not involve infielders. The stats used are HRs allowed, Ks, Hit Batters, BB & recently Fly-Ball %, Ground Ball % and Line Drive %.
3.50 FIP = Great
3.80 FIP = Above Average
4.20 FIP = Average
4.40 FIP = Below Average
Who Are The 2021 NL Cy Young Candidates?
Giants RHP Kevin Gausman
2021 Stats:
4.9 WAR, 14-6, 175.0 IP, 2.78 ERA, 149 ERA+, 2.88 FIP, 1.034 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 208 K, 3.44 xERA, 3.29 xFIP
ERA ranks 5th in NL, Ks rank 5th in NL, WHIP tied for 6th in NL, BAA ranks 5th in NL
Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler
2021 Stats:
5.9 WAR, 14-4, 192.0 IP, 2.39 ERA, 168 ERA+, 3.21 FIP, 0.964 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 194 K, 3.12 xERA, 3.21 xFIP
ERA ranks 3rd in NL, Ks rank 8th in NL, WHIP tied for 3rd in NL, BAA tied 2nd in NL
Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler
2021 Stats:
7.0 WAR, 14-9, 200.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, 145 ERA+, 2.66 FIP, 1.018 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 231 K, 2.82 xERA, 2.87 xFIP
ERA ranks 6th in NL, Ks ranked 1st in NL, WHIP ranks 5th in NL, BAA ranks 10th in NL
Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes
2021 Stats:
5.3 WAR, 10-4, 152.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 188 ERA+, 1.50 FIP, 0.914 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 210 K, 1.90 xERA, 2.30 xFIP
ERA ranks 2nd in NL, Ks rank 3rd in NL, WHIP ranks 2nd in NL, BAA ranks 4th in NL
Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer
2021 Stats:
6.1 WAR, 14-4, 162.0 IP, 2.17 ERA, 187 ERA+, 2.86 FIP, 0.821 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 219 K, 2.17 xERA, 3.12 xFIP
Since Joining LAD Post Trade Deadline:
6-0, 51.0 IP, 72 K, 12.7 K/9, 0.9 BB/9, 458 ERA+, 1.26 FIP, 0.667 WHIP
ERA ranks 1st in NL, Ks rank 2nd in NL, WHIP ranks 1st in NL, BAA ranks 1st in NL
Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff
2021 Stats:
5.2 WAR, 9-9, 169.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 166 ERA+, 2.98 FIP, 0.963 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 198 K, 3.29 xERA, 3.05 xFIP
ERA ranks 4th in NL, Ks rank 6th in NL, WHIP tied for 3rd in NL, BAA tied 2nd in NL
Honorable Mentions
Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright
At the age of 40 years old…Adam Wainwright continues to find a way to put away hitters & reminds fans that age is but a number. Amid a late season postseason push, “Uncle Charlie” is helping St. Louis when they need it most and could very well be playing in October.
2021 Stats:
3.5 WAR, 16-7, 190.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 134 ERA+, 3.51 FIP, 1.030 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 167 K, 3.81 xERA, 3.78 xFIP
Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta
2021 Stats:
3.8 WAR, 9-4, 133.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 165 ERA+, 0.947 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 181 K, 2.65 xERA, 3.68 xFIP
Who Are The Frontrunners??
As of now, the names that I just listed could all be considered “front runners” in one way, shape or form. Looking back to the 1st time I fell in love with baseball (2008), I cannot remember the time that either league in MLB had so many names fighting for a Cy Young Award.
If you would’ve asked me this before the 2021 Trade Deadline, I would have told you that Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes & Zack Wheeler were among the front runners in the NL Cy Young race. I for one was a big fan of the 3 potentially winning but more so in Gausman & Burnes given their great starts to the 2021 season. Wheeler had some great runs earlier in the season and currently leads the NL in strikeout along with the highest WAR among the options listed. Wheeler was also a big reason why Philadelphia overtook the NL East Lead in early August from the Mets.
Enter Scherzer…prior to being dealt to the Dodgers in July, MadMax was putting up great numbers with the Nationals who at the time, still believed that they could be a contender come the trade deadline. Knowing what we know now, Washington of course fell from grace and ended up pulling off MASSIVE TRADE with the Dodgers, sending BOTH Max Scherzer & Trea Turner to LA. Since then, Scherzer has kept the Dodgers in contention from another NL West Pennant and has slotted himself as LA’s Game 1 Starter as they could potentially end up as the home team come Wild Card time.
So Who Wins???
Corbin Burnes Wins NL Cy Young
Let’s consider Co-Winners??? Maybe??? Milwaukee Brewers Ace Corbin Burnes is my pick to win the 2021 NL Cy Young. There were just so many options & it was not easy coming to this decision. This decision will certainly upset fans but given that Corbin Burnes had such an impressive run early on in the season prior to missing time on the COVID IL, it was hard NOT to choose him.
Corbin Burnes set a record early on in the season that saw him strikeout 58 consecutive batters before allowing his 1st walk on the year. It’s also worth mentioning that as recently as last week, Burnes helped Milwaukee throw a combined no-hitter with the help of All-Star Reliever Josh Hader to close it out vs Cleveland. Though Burnes was certainly able to finish out that game on his own, the combined no-no was the 2nd in team history & the 9th this season. Burnes’ contribution to the no-hitter also came on the 20th Anniversary of September 11th, 2001. A memorable moment to be sure but not just for Major League Baseball as Burnes managed to enshrine himself in both Brewers History & Baseball History.
Before it’s said…Burnes has indeed pitched less innings among the pitchers listed, but as mentioned before, he missed time due to a non-injury & has still been able to maintain the lead in some major statistical categories. Burnes has the lowest FIP among the options, the best ERA+ & the best K/9 among the group.
It’s certainly a testament to the kind of winning culture Milwaukee has been able to build these last few years. They’ve been able to do it with a mixture of talent & have managed to build a potent starting rotation built off homegrown talent. 3 of the 8 players highlighted today are all members of the Brewers pitching staff & come postseason time, the sky could be this teams only limit.
Many knew Corbin Burnes the repertoire of an elite MLB pitcher, but very few could have seen this coming from him in 2021. It’s worth repeating that this decision was INCREDIBLY hard to make and each player has a great case to make for winning the NL Cy Young. I certainly believe that each of the players I highlighted here today will all receive votes when they end up on the ballot. With Burnes as my 2021 pick, this does not disregard the accomplishments of the other pitchers mentioned. Candidates like Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman deserve a lot of credit for their 2021 season, after slotting themselves atop the “Ace” tier of pitchers this year.
Reference Page:
MLB FanGraphs
Baseball Reference
MLB.com