Breaking Down The American League Cy Young Race
Who are The Recent Winners in The American League?
Indians RHP Shane Bieber (2020)*: 8-1, 77.1 IP, 1.63 ERA, 122 K, 2.5 WAR, 278 ERA+, 0.866 WHIP, 14.2 K/9
Astros RHP Justin Verlander (2019): 21-6, 223.0 IP, 2.58 ERA, 300 K, 7.4 WAR, 179 ERA+, 0.803 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Rays LHP Blake Snell (2018): 21-5, 180.2 IP, 1.89 ERA, 221 K, 7.1 WAR, 217 ERA+, 0.974 WHIP, 11.0 K/9
Indians RHP Corey Kluber (2017): 18-4, 203.2 IP, 2.25 ERA, 265 K, 7.9 WAR, 202 ERA+, 0.869 WHIP, 11.7 K/9
Red Sox RHP Rick Porcello (2016): 22-4, 223.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 189 K, 4.7 WAR, 142 ERA+, 1.009 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
Understanding Advanced Stats Used for Major League Pitchers:
What is WAR?
Wins Above Replacement measures a players value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement level at the same position.
WHIP - Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched
1.00 WHIP = Amazing
1.10 WHIP = Great
1.20 WHIP = Above Average
1.30 WHIP = Average
ERA+ Definition: A player’s ERA that is normalized across the league. Accounts external factors like ballparks pitched in & opponents.
ERA+ Above 100 = Pitching performance better than average
100 ERA+ = League Average
ERA+ Below 100 = Pitching performance below the league average
Who Are The 2021 AL Cy Young Candidates?
New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole
2021 Stats
Record: 14-6
Innings Pitched: 155.0 (4th in AL)
ERA: 2.73 (2nd in AL)
Strikeouts: 217 (1st in AL)
WAR: 5.6 (2nd in AL)
ERA+: 156 (2nd in AL)
WHIP: 0.968 (T1 in AL)
K/9: 12.5 (2nd in AL)
Toronto Blue Jays LHP Robbie Ray
2021 Stats
Record: 11-5
Innings Pitched: 166.0
ERA: 2.60 (1st in AL)
Strikeouts: 212 (2nd in AL)
WAR: 6.8 (1st in AL)
ERA+: 171 (1st in AL)
WHIP: 0.994 (T1 in AL)
K/9: 12.4 (3rd in AL)
The Once “Favorites” to Win
Chicago White Sox RHP Lance Lynn
10-4, 135.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 152 K, 4.4 WAR, 164 ERA+, 1.076 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Chicago White Sox LHP Carlos Rodon
11-5, 119.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 168 K, 4.2 WAR, 177 ERA+, 0.978, 12.6 K/9
Why Lynn or Rodon Won’t Win
Both White Sox Pitchers have pitched/appeared in less games than Gerrit Cole (25) and Robbie Ray (27) due to injuries. Their numbers at first glance will definitely get votes come the end of the season but it will be incredibly hard for either to win. Robbie Ray is amidst a resurgent year with Toronto, showing flashes of what Arizona thought they had before trading him in 2020. Gerrit Cole is into his first full year with the Yankees after a pandemic shortened his NYY homecoming in 2020 after inking a MASSIVE 9 Year - $324M Contract after a career year with Houston in 2019.
Honorable Mention
Angels RHP/DH/OF Shohei Ohtani
Similar to Lance Lynn & Carlos Rodon, Shohei Ohtani will most definitely receive some votes for the AL Cy Young Award. There is no doubt that Ohtani is the front runner for AL MVP and will likely win that coveted award. However, Ohtani just doesn’t have that big of a pitching resume to compete with the likes of Robbie Ray and Gerrit Cole.
2021 Stats
9-1, 2.97 ERA, 112.0 IP, 135 K, 150 ERA+, 1.071 WHIP, 3.6 WAR (Pitching)
Despite an inconsistent start to his 2-Way Career, Ohtani has put up INCREDIBLY impressive numbers in 2021 on both sides of the field & will certainly be in the conversation by some for the award but will not win it.
So Who Wins??
Gerrit Cole Wins AL Cy Young in Year 2
As mentioned before, Robbie Ray is in the midst of a resurgence with Toronto after being traded at the 2020 Trade Deadline. After coming over from Arizona in 2020, Ray equally struggled posting a 4.79 ERA in 5 Games with a 1.742 WHIP. However, Ray took a chance on himself in the 2020 Offseason and re-signed with Toronto and HAS NOT looked back since, helping Toronto stay in Postseason contention and making himself a hot commodity after the 2021 Season is over.
Needless to say, both Ray & Cole have been equally impressive in 2021 but Gerrit Cole has just simply been phenomenal for The Yankees and has been worth every dime they’ve spent on him to be the Ace they’ve so desperately needed. Of course it wouldn’t be the Yankees without negative press surrounding the team and during the 1st half of 2021, “Sticky Stuff” and Spider-Tack were linked to Cole’s impressive numbers dating back to his days in Houston. After MLB cracked down on the usage of foreign substances, Cole had his fair share of struggles afterwards. Some even questioned if his Mega-Deal would end up being another bad signing for NYY, but Cole trusted his process and blocked outside noises. This has all ultimately led to a remarkable Year 2 in the Bronx for Gerrit Cole, which is leaving fans around the league excited to see what he can do if the Yankees can once again scrap out a 2021 Postseason spot. *
* = Gerrit Cole suffered what is currently being labeled as a Hamstring Injury Yesterday vs Toronto. Depending on the severity, Cole could be shelved for the remainder of the 2021 Season which would make his chances of winning Cy Young slimmer.
Reference Page
FanGraphs
MLB.com
GettyImages
Baseball Reference