Breaking Down the AL MVP Race with 358
After a shortened COVID 2020 season, that saw White Sox 1B Jose Abreu & Braves 1B Freddie Freeman win The Most Valuable Player Award in their respective leagues, the 2021 season has given us an AL MVP Race that gets better as the season winds down. The American League is star studded from top to bottom & luckily for fans, we get to see how it plays out. Let’s take a deeper dive into the stats & let’s find out who could ultimately win this year!!
Who Are The Recent AL MVP Winners???
2020 - 1B Jose Abreu (CHW)* :
3.0 WAR, 60 G, 76 H, 19 HR, 60 RBI | .317/.370/.617/.987 | 165 OPS+, wOBA = .411, 127 wRC+
2019 - OF Mike Trout (LAA):
7.9 WAR, 134 G, 137 H, 45 HR, 104 RBI | .291/.438/.645/1.083 | 183 OPS+, wOBA = .436, 177 wRC+
2018 - OF Mookie Betts (BOS):
10.7 WAR, 136 G, 180 H, 32, 80 RBI | .346/.438/.640/1.078 | 186 OPS+, wOBA = .449, 185 wRC+
2017 - 2B Jose Altuve (HOU):
7.7 WAR, 153 G, 204 H, 24 HR, 81 RBI | .346/.410/.547/.957 | 160 OPS, wOBA = .405, 160 wRC+
2016 - OF Mike Trout (LAA):
10.5 WAR, 159 G, 173 H, 29 HR, 100 RBI | .315/.441/.550/.991 | 173 OPS+, wOBA = .437, 180 wRC+
Understanding Advanced Stats
What is WAR?
Wins Above Replacement measures a players value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement level at the same position.
2 WAR = League Average Depending on Position
What is OPS+?
OPS+ = OnBase% + Slugging % & normalizes it across the entire league.
150 = Above Average
100 = Average
50 = Average
What is wOBA?
wOBA is a statistic designed to measure a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance.
.400 = Excellent
.370 = Great
.340 = Above Average
.320 = Average
.310 = Below Average
What is wRC+?
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) takes the runs created stat & adjusts the number to account for external factors.
The league average wRC+ sits at 100, so a player who notches a wRC+ of 150 would be 50% above league average
140 = Great
115 = Above Average
100 = Average
80 = Below Average
Who Are The AL MVP Candidates??
Angels 2-Way Superstar Shohei Ohtani
2021 Pitching Stats: 8.2 Total WAR
3.7 WAR, 9-2, 123.1 IP, 178 K
3.28 ERA, 135 ERA+
3.56 FIP, 1.111 WHIP
10.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.43 xERA, 3.61 xFIP
2021 Batting Stats:
4.5 WAR, 142 G, 128 H, 44 HR, 94 RBI
154 OPS+, wOBA = .391, 150 wRC+
.257/.360/.592/.952
AL Rankings:
1st in WAR (all positions), Tied 47th in AVG, 3rd in HRs, Tied 13th in RBI, 42nd in Hits, 13th in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS, 7th in BB
Yankees OF Aaron Judge
2021 Stats:
5.1 WAR, 136 G, 145 H, 35 HR, 85 RBI
145 OPS+, wOBA = .382, 145 wRC+
.284/.369/.531/.900
AL Rankings:
7th in HRs, 24th in AVG, Tied 17th in RBI, Tied 5th in OBP, 11th in SLG, Tied 6th in OPS, 8th in MLB (OPS+), 22nd in Hits, 13th in BB
Blue Jays 1B/DH Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2021 Stats:
6.8 WAR, 148 G, 178 H, 46 HR, 105 RBI
177 OPS+, wOBA = .429 , 173 wRC+
.321/.411/.617/1.029
AL Rankings:
1st in AVG, Tied 1st in HRs, Tied 4th in RBI, 1st in OBP, 1st in SLG, 1st in OPS, 1st in Hits, 3rd in BB
Royals C Salvador Perez
2021 Stats:
5.0 WAR, 148 G, 157 H, 45 HR, 113 RBI
126 OPS+, wOBA = .358, 126 wRC+
.274/.314/.542/.856
AL Rankings:
23rd in AVG, Tied 1st in HRs, 1st in RBI, 51st in OBP, 6th in SLG, 14th in OPS, Tied 7th in Hits, 113th in BB
Blue Jays 2B Marcus Semien
2021 Stats:
6.8 WAR, 149 G, 161 H, 40 HR, 95 RBI
137 OPS+, wOBA = .372, 134 wRC+
.270/.341/.541/.882
AL Rankings:
35th in AVG, 4th in HRs, 12th in RBI, 35th in OBP, 7th in SLG, Tied 10th in OPS, 5th in Hits, 20th in BB
Making a Case for Each Player
Yankees OF - Aaron Judge:
Despite criticism because of injuries & strikeouts, Aaron Judge has been one of the most consistent players in all of MLB since entering the league in 2016. We all know of the controversial 2017 season that saw Astros Star Jose Altuve seemingly steal an MVP Award from Judge following their sign-stealing scandal. Judge hasnt quite replicated that stellar rookie year in 2017, however since then Judge has been able to bat above a .250 AVG, have an OBP above .350, an OPS+ above 140 & has kept his wRC+ above 140 in the years following.
Blue Jays 1B/DH - Vladimir Guerrero Jr:
Vlad Jr. is another player who has seen his fair share of criticism over the past few years, from people calling him a bust after being a Top Prospect in Toronto to people straight up calling out his weight. Following the 2020 Season, Vlad Jr. was determined to show people why he was once a highly regarded talent and prove that he has earned the right walk in the footsteps of his father Vladimir Guerrero Sr. Vlad Jr. lost the weight that many made fun of him for & has not only emerged as a Top 5 Player in his Division and or League, but has emerged as a Star in ALL of Major League Baseball.
Blue Jays 2B - Marcus Semien:
Who would’ve thought that when the Toronto Blue Jays signed SS Marcus Semien from Oakland on a 1 Year - $18M Deal that it would pay off for them…IN SUCH A BIG WAY. Originally a Shortstop in Oakland, Semien had to switch to 2B in Toronto given the plethora of young INF talent has not looked back. Semien adjusted to the position quickly and in doing so has been able to mash the baseball at an MVP caliber rate. Semien and his infield counterpart Vlad Jr. are two of the biggest reasons for Toronto’s success in 2021 that currently seems them fighting for an AL Wildcard spot.
Royals C - Salvador Perez:
Who doesn’t love Salvy?? Criticism is a reoccurring theme in sports and is a prominent part in the AL MVP Candidates this year more than any other. With all that said, after signing a 4 Year - $82M Deal to stay in Kansas City, many questioned the move for the Royals due to Salvy’s lack of offensive production mixed in with him missing all of 2019 with an injury to pair with the shortened 2020 season. HOWEVER, Salvador Perez has seen a HUGE increase in offensive production with the Royals in 2021 with 46 HRs HRs & 113 RBI to show for it. Perez now has the most HRs for a catcher in a single season which passes Reds legend Johnny Bench’s record.
Angels RHP/DH/OF Superstar - Shohei Ohtani:
TWO. WAY. STAR - Is there anything more to say when it comes to Ohtani??? Shohei Ohtani is another candidate that has taken a HUGE step in production when compared to years past. Upon entering the league in 2018, Ohtani put up respectable numbers for the Angels on both sides of the field in varied samples, but something was simply missing; his “Ace’ tier pitching production. After solely being a DH in 2019 due to Tommy John Surgery & recovery, we as baseball fans were vying for the Ohtani we knew that was an enigma coming out of Japan. Enter 2021, Ohtani finally was 100% healthy and was given the opportunity to do the things he’s best at on both sides & the rest is simply history. With less than a month left in the 2021 regular season, it’ll be fun to see what more Ohtani can do to wow baseball fans from all generations and groups.
In The End..Only 1 Will Win..
So Who Wins??
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Wins The 2021 AL MVP Award
Let’s give credit to what Shohei Ohtani has done in 2021 with the faltering Los Angeles Angels. The mere fact that Ohtani certainly has the potential to put up great numbers again when the 2022 season commences should give Vlad Jr. more of a chance in this years MVP race. With all that’s been said and done surrounding Ohtani this year, 2021 is the simply the year of Vladdy.
Being that this is an opinion piece, I’m able to acknowledge that Vlad Jr. likely won’t win in the eyes of MLB writers & those who fill out the ballots given Shohei’s 2-way production in 2021. However, in my opinion & given the data I’ve presented, Vlad has not only quieted critics, but he’s also ignited a Blue Jays offense into a heated AL Wildcard Race against AL East Rivals (BOS & NYY).
Let’s also not forget that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is also in the midst of a Triple Crown hunt as he’s 1st in AVG, Tied 1st in HRs & is Tied 4th in RBI. Pair those stats with being in the Top 5 of some of the major statistical categories & it obviously does not come easy throughout a 162 game season. Though he doesn’t have the highest total WAR among the names mentioned, one could make the argument that the Blue Jays might not be as good if Vlad didn’t emerge as the slugger that he is currently.
Regardless of who wins, this years AL MVP Winner will take him a much earned prize after a shortened 2020 season that did not provide fans with nearly as many high moments throughout the year like 2021 has.
Reference Page:
BaseballReference
MLB FanGraphs
MLB.com
BaseballSavant