Braves vs. Astros: How they got here and what to expect
After losing to the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS, the Los Angeles Dodgers failed to rewrite history this past Saturday. Just as in 2020, the Dodgers went down three games to one against the reigning NL East Champions but were unable to replicate their good fortune this time around. They fought hard but were ultimately outplayed. With their win, Atlanta punched themselves a ticket to their first Fall Classic since 1999 in which the stage is set for them to face off against the Houston Astros in a battle of southern powerhouses. Now, the question is: what can we expect from these two teams in the 2021 World Series?
Houston, which is about to play in its third World Series in the past five seasons, cruised through the playoffs with relative ease, going a combined 7-3 against Chicago and Boston. As has been the story for almost the entire season, the Astros were propelled by their potent batting lineup which has been their primary weapon throughout the entire season. In 2021, these sluggers made it abundantly clear to the baseball community that they did not need to cheat in order to perform at an elite level.
After a rough 2020 which saw many of their players struggling to maintain their success in previous years, the Astros proved that the 62-game season was not an accurate representation of their productivity post-sign-stealing scandal. Thanks to bouncebacks from Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Yuli Gurriel, coupled with continued offensive production from young sluggers Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, the most hated team in baseball proved all the doubters wrong this year. They did this-- despite the incessant boos and all too familiar hit-by-pitches they frequently endured during the very first season with fans in attendance following the news of the scandal breaking. Even with all of this pressure and negativity surrounding them, the 2017 champs went about their business once again and found a way into the postseason-- a standard for them in recent years. So, while baseball fans may not necessarily like it, they should at least respect the fact that this is a darn good team.
The Astros relied on their hitting to win the American League pennant, and we can expect more of the same in the World Series. During the regular season, Houston led the league in total runs scored, batting average, hits, RBIs, and on-base percentage. They were third also third in slugging percentage and second in OPS.
While the Astros’ pitching staff was not bad by any means this year--boasting a 3.76 team ERA (seventh in MLB)--much of that success was thanks to a dominant season from their ace Lance Mccullers Jr, who has officially been ruled out for the World Series due to a strained elbow. That is a massive blow to this Astros team which is about to square off against a red-hot Braves offense. Aside from Mccullers, the only two pitchers who were consistently great this year were trade deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman and closer Ryan Pressly--two relievers who pitch no more than one to two innings out of the bullpen.
Aside from that very small handful of hurlers, there are a number of question marks surrounding the Astros’ pitching staff. One of which is starter Framber Valdez, who is coming off an outing in which he threw eight innings of one-run ball and struck out five. This was easily one of his best performances of the year, but in his previous two starts this postseason Valdez lasted only a combined 7 innings, allowing six runs in those starts.
The ‘Stros will be forced to rely on guys like Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Zack Greinke in order to hold Atlanta’s offseason at bay during the World Series.-- no small task for a pitching staff that has continued to show an inability to deliver strong outings on a consistent basis. Unless all of these pitchers step up big time in this series, it is safe to say Houston is going to once again need to rely on its hitting to win games. And as we have already seen throughout the playoffs this year, the Astros’ lineup never fails to catch fire during October, and all signs indicate that they are going to continue to do so in order to bring a title back to H Town.
Despite an incredible second half, Atlanta’s 2021 season did not get off to the start the team had hoped for, and things only got worse after slugger Marcell Ozuna suffered multiple broken fingers and was arrested soon after on domestic violence charges that will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the year. Losing Ozuna was definitely a huge blow to the Braves lineup but was nothing compared to the loss of superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. Acuna, by far the Braves’most valuable asset, was posting MVP-caliber numbers before tearing his ACL in July, a season-ending injury.
After trailing the Mets in the NL East for exactly 103 days and their young star suffering a devastating season-ending injury, most people did not expect Atlanta to be buyers at the trade deadline in hopes of making a playoff push. However, that is exactly what they did, as GM Alex Anthopoulos went out and acquired a multitude of impact players to make up for Acuna’s massive loss, including Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Soler. Anthopoulos’s plan worked to perfection as the Braves proceeded to go 44-28 in the second half of the season en route to their fourth straight division title in as many years. Not only did these newly-added players step up big time during the final stretch of the season, but Atlanta’s cornerstone pieces also contributed to the cause in a major way as well--thanks to incredible seasons from Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, and Max Fried.
Thus far in the postseason, the Braves have been riding hot streaks from a handful of players, but there is one in particular that has stood out: Eddie Rosario. This deadline acquisition has put the team on his back the last few weeks and has shown no signs of slowing down. In 38 at-bats this October, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario has slashed an absurd .474/.524/.789 with 18 hits, three home runs, and 11 RBI’s. Nothing the outfielder has done recently has indicated that he will cool down anytime soon, and the Braves should hope that is in fact the case as Rosario will be incredibly important to the team’s success in the Fall Classic.
Veteran first baseman Freddie Freeman has also made a big impact with the bat this October, smashing 3 home runs to go along with a .1072 OPS. While huge performances from a handful of hitters were enough to thrust Atlanta into the World Series, there are a number of key players, such as Riley, Albies, Swanson, and Adam Duvall, who have struggled to get it going offensively.
Regardless of whether or not Rosario is able to carry his hot streak over to the World Series, it will be absolutely pivotal for those who have not yet gotten the job done to do so if this ball club is going to have any shot at the title. The Braves and Astros had almost identical pitching numbers during the regular season as Atlanta finished just behind Houston in team ERA during the regular season at 3.88 (eighth in MLB to Houston’s seventh). Both clubs had very solid pitching performances throughout the regular season and postseason, but have each dealt with consistency issues with their respective pitching staffs, particularly their starters. As a result, it is looking increasingly likely that these two teams will be trying to slug their way to a championship as they have done all year, and in my opinion, whichever team’s offense out-performs the other is the team that will walk away as World Champions.
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