Jack Leiter was meant to be the real deal.

The former Vanderbilt ace was ranked as a top-100 prospect in Major League Baseball, and has been one of the most exciting and polarizing pitching prospects in recent memory.

Following Leiter’s dominant outing and win in the first game of the 2021 College World Series, the hype surrounding him began to build of being a potential lottery pick in that year’s MLB Draft.

However, since being drafted, Leiter has not lived up to the high expectations. His career in the minor leagues has been rough, and the former top prospect has turned in poor performances in the Rangers’ farm system. His eventual call-up to the major leagues seems far and beyond the 2023 season.

Leiter was drafted second overall in the 2021 MLB Draft to the Texas Rangers out of the University of Vanderbilt.

Being the son of former MLB all-star pitcher Al Leiter, experts and fans expected the young prospect to match the excellent production his father had in the league, or even potentially be better. Al was a Cy-Young caliber pitcher in his time with the Florida Marlins and New York Mets, and his wisdom and experience at the major league level was thought to have translated well to the Vanderbilt star.

Or so we thought.

Leiter would start his minor league career in Double-A with the Frisco RoughRiders and have a very poor season in his 2022 campaign. Pitching in 23 games for the RoughRiders, Leiter posted a 3-10 record, 5.54 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in 92.2 innings of work.

The poor season could be attributed to Leiter’s lack of command in the strike zone. His BB/9 was at a staggering 5.4, and he walked 56 batters in his first full season in the minors. Of the 425 batters Leiter faced that season, he walked close to 15% of the ones that he faced.

However, despite the command issues, Leiter’s season still showed flashes of greatness. He was able to strike out batters at an elite rate. In his 92.2 innings of work, Leiter struck out 109 batters and had a K/9 of 10.6, showcasing his ability to be a power pitcher who can beat batters with his stuff.

Not every player finds success early on in the minor leagues, and the Texas front office was not worried in the slightest. The adjustment from college ball to the minor leagues is a large gap in talent, and it was likely that Leiter struggled to adjust to the increase in talent. The expectations remained high for Leiter the following season in 2023.

However, his sophomore season in the minors has been even worse.

In 15 games, Leiter currently sports a 2-5 record, a 5.51 ERA, 1.515 WHIP in 65.1 innings of work.

His command and control has gotten even worse, as his walks per nine innings has increased to 5.9, and the righty has already walked 43 batters in his few starts.

Despite this, as a positive outlook, Leiter continues to strike out batters at an elite rate still, striking out 85 batters in 65.1 innings of work, and showcasing a strikeouts per nine innings rate of 11.7 for the year. The righty improved on his ability to strikeout batters, and growth has been seen in his sophomore season.

He continues to get rocked in Double-A however, as he has given up 40 earned runs and has a poor HR/9 of 1.5 on the year.

His lack of consistent command of the zone either results in walks, or poorly located pitches that have too much plate coverage, resulting in easy hits for opposing teams.

Leiter currently has had his 2023 season put on hold, as Frisco opted the prospect to the development list in order to work on improving his pitching mechanics with the hopes of limiting the walks and lack of control.

While it could be a sophomore slump for Jack Leiter, his regression and struggles at the minor leagues in comparison to his dominance at the college level have been surprising to many.

The struggles remain to be inexplicable, as Leiter’s pitch mix continues to be electric. Scouts graded his high 90s fastball a perfect 60/60, and his punch-out pitches, his slider and curveball a 55/60 and 50/50 respectively. Leiter’s pitches continue to be elite and difficult to hit, but his lack of control with those pitches makes it hard for them to be effective.

If Leiter wants to receive the call-up to the injured Texas Rangers rotation, he is going to need to change his mechanics, lower the walks, and find his control of the zone again.

With an electric pitch mix, an elite ability to strike out hitters, Jack Leiter has all of the tools needed to become an elite pitcher at the MLB level. He simply needs to find his command, and start producing at the minors consistently to earn the call-up to the 26-man roster.

For now, Rangers fans can only hope that Leiter figures things out in the minors, as with the injury-prone rotation that Texas fields, Leiter’s explosive presence in the pitching rotation could be beneficial for future season’s to come.