What Do The Mets Do At The DH?
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The New York Mets are 54-34. They are one of four teams to be at least 20 games above .500 and have the fourth-best record in baseball. They were the first team in the National League (NL) to 50 wins and have led the NL East since April 8. According to Fangraphs, they have a 98.5 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 50 percent chance to win their division. It is an encouraging time to be part of the Flushing Faithful. Yet the Mets have a serious power problem.
The club has the 19th-most home runs, 20th-best home run percentage (HR%), the 19th-most doubles, and is 20th in Isolated Power (ISO), a statistic that evaluates how much raw power a player generates with their swing. Usually, the designated hitter (DH) is the exception to this problem. The position was created to give defensively challenged yet offensively gifted players at-bats. To the Mets' credit, they’ve found those players in Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. However, what they have not seen in either of those hitters is the solution to their lack of power.
In 39 starts at DH, Davis has a .270 batting average, a .355 on-base percentage, a .413 slugging percentage, and 15 runs batted in (RBI). However, these capable numbers mask that Davis only has three home runs, seven doubles, and one triple in those 39 starts. And roughly 67 percent of his hits at the DH position have been singles. These are adequate numbers, but they fail to offer anything different from the rest of the Mets lineup and fail to solve the problem. And while Davis offers offensive production, Smith doesn’t.
In his 14 starts at DH, the first baseman has a .209 average, a .300 OBP, a below-league-average .349 slugging percentage, and a .649 on-base plus slugging (OPS). In addition, he has just four doubles and hasn’t hit a home run since July 21 of last season. The pair's power struggles leave the Mets with a glaring need on their roster. With trade season in full swing and the trade deadline looming, New York is running out of time to remedy this problem. But what potential players could solve that problem?
If the Mets are strictly attempting to address power, they should look no further than Rockies' first baseman C.J. Cron. The 32-year-old veteran has 20 home runs, 19 doubles, and 20 home runs, with 66 RBIs in 84 games. Furthermore, the only players with a higher slugging percentage in the NL than Cron are reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper and current NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.
Cron is more than just a power hitter, however. His .295 average is 12th-best, while his .350 OBP is 20th-best in the NL. In addition, Cron’s .901 OPS is the fourth-best in the league and is only bested by Goldschmidt, Harper, and Manny Machado. Given Colorado’s 38-48 record and zero-percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs, moving Cron is a move that makes sense for the franchise. With Cron under contract for next season, Colorado can fetch several prospects at the deadline to help build a foundation moving forward. The only question is from which team.
If the Mets are content finding a mix between Cron’s skill set and their current sensibilities, first baseman Josh Bell fits the bill. Bell has been the lone bright spot in a dismal season for the Washington Nationals and is in the midst of a career season, slashing .308/.389/.497 with a .886 OPS. Bell’s 12 home runs and 19 doubles prove he can supply the power New York's lineup desperately needs. Like Cron, Bell is among the league leaders in several offensive categories. The 29-year-old currently has the fifth-best average, third-best OBP, 11th-best slugging percentage, and the eighth-best OPS in the NL. With 12 home runs and 19 doubles, Bell can supply the power that the Mets lineup desperately needs.
What’s encouraging about Bell is his production could be even better. His HR%, ISO, and hard-hit rate are below his career averages. In other words, as good as he’s been, Bell can be even better. Washington’s 30-58 record should make the team inclined to move Bell, especially considering the slugger is a pending free agent following this season. That said, Washington may not be inclined to move Bell to a team within their division. Especially with the two teams having to play each other nine more times. If Bell cannot be obtained, New York could find another possible DH in Baltimore Orioles' first baseman Trey Mancini.
Unlike Cron and Bell, the Mets have already been linked to Mancini, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported late last month. Mancini's style of play is not far from that of the Mets' current options. With a .281 average this and a .353 OBP this season, Mancini’s proven he’s a capable and disciplined bat. Yet, with just eight home runs and 15 doubles, Mancini lacks the power conventional wisdom suggests the Mets should chase. His 2.4% HR% is the lowest of his career, as is his .138 ISO. Bottom-line, Mancini is a good player that offers more of the same for a club that should be looking for the opposite.
Another problem in a possible Mancini trade is the Orioles may not want to part with him. While at first, that could be seen as a sentimental move, given Mancini has been an Oriole since 2016. But with the Orioles on a nine-game winning streak, there’s some merit to the move. Keeping Mancini signals to fans and the rest of baseball that the Orioles are no longer a seller and are no longer organ-harvesting for the other 29 teams. They have found a foundation for their future. One Mancini will be part of for years to come.
The good news is the Mets have three weeks until they run out of time as to what to do with the position. The bad news is they’ve run out of rope. By the end of the week, the Mets could be second in the NL East for the first time since April after a series with the Atlanta Braves.
The Mets have to make a move. The question is, who will it be?
