Examining Potential Suitors for Willy Adames
Milwaukee, WI (PSF) — One singular move sent ripples through the Milwaukee Brewers fanbase, and could be an indication of what is to come.
With the Milwaukee Brewers shipping out former Cy-Young Award Winner Corbin Burners this week, more cost-cutting may be in the fold for the 2023 National League Central Champions.
Shortstop Willy Adames, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021, may be on the move soon as well, as longtime MLB reporter Bob Nightengale indicated that he is available in trade talks.
Adames, 28, is a quality shortstop in the prime of his career. He recently signed a 1-year, $12.25 million deal that will make him an unrestricted free agent after the 2024 season. If acquired, Adames could likely be a rental, as unless he signs an extension with the team that acquires him, he will likely command a 100 million-plus contract in free agency.
Both offensively and defensively, he provides positive value. Worth 15 total Wins Above Replacement in his career (WAR — a value of how many wins a player is worth and measures all aspects of the game), Adames has been a solid contributor to multiple playoff teams. He debuted in 2019 as a 22-year-old, slashing .278/.348/.406 with 10 home runs and 34 (Runs Batted In) RBIs.
Over time, Adames improved his defense. Although he graded out as a below-average defender his rookie season (-0.3 dWAR — meaning he was a defender with negative impact), he has posted positive defensive WAR ratings every season since then, including a 1.9 dWAR in 2022, and a 1.7 dWAR in 2023.
With a solid approach from the moment he made his debut, he has posted an above-average career walk rate: (9.4 percent for his career, 8.5 percent MLB average), but has also had issues with strikeouts. He had a ghastly 35.9 percent strikeout rate just as recently as 2021, however, he offset that by having an above-average walk rate and hitting a combined 75 home runs from 2021-2023. He likely is not going to hit for a high average (.238 in 2022, .217 in 2023) at this stage in his career, and the metrics are not kind to him in batted ball statistics, he will still provide quality defense, likely hit 18-25 home runs, and get on base at an above average rate for his batting average.
High-quality shortstops are hard to come by nowadays. As evidenced by this year’s shortstop free agency class, a shortstop of Adames’s caliber is quite significant, and the market for his services is likely quite active. I’m going to look at 3 potential teams, and an honorable mention, who could be in the market for his services.
Honorable mention: San Francisco Giants
A Giants and Willy Adames union makes quite a lot of sense. However, they are an honorable mention due to the rationale of the front office and their adamant claims to have touted prospect Marco Luciano be the everyday shortstop.
Adames would solve the defensive woes that the Giants endured at shortstop last year, and the potential defensive woes of the defensively limited Luciano, who may have to shift positions in the future. Brandon Crawford and the handful of fill-ins at shortstop graded out dreadfully defensively except for when everyday second-baseman Thairo Estrada filled in at shortstop.
Offensively, it was equally as bad. Giants according to Fangraphs, Giants shortstops had a 70 WRC+ (weighted runs created plus), and hit .221 with 13 home runs and 56 RBIs, with a 44/156 walk to strikeout ratio in 556 at-bats.
That is… very bad.
They’re taking a risk by relying on a young player with 39 career at-bats to his name, but interestingly, Luciano’s ceiling may be around Willy Adames’s best offensive years. A lower average, respectable walk rate, high strikeout rate, and above-average power. The Giants are likely hoping to be able to find production in-house, rather than parting with assets they like.
Thus, while an Adames trade makes sense, it just seems unlikely considering the affinity the Giants organization has for Luciano, and their unwillingness to fork over valued prospects.
Potential suitor #3: Atlanta Braves
Although not the team that would come to mind immediately as a suitor for Adames, for a team like Atlanta that fell short in the postseason in the last two years, they could take a page out of the Dodgers’ book, and be aggressive with their upgrades at average positions.
Orlando Arcia made the all-star team (controversially) last year with a .295/.345/.425 slash line with 7 home runs and 28 RBIs last year. However, his production tapered off in the second half, as he hit just .235 in the second half, and a tepid .154 in the playoffs in 14 plate appearances.
During that postseason, he also became a distraction, when reports of his locker room antics were leaked to the media. It essentially poked the bear, and Harper dominated the rest of that series, a series which the Braves would eventually lose and prompted moments like these:
Outside of the off the field aspects though, Adames is more of an upgrade than people would think.
Offensively, the numbers are more similar than people would think:
Willy Adames vs. Orlando Arcia 2023 Stats. CREDIT: Baseball Reference
However, this was Adames’s floor offensively, most-likely. It is unlikely he’d hit that close to the .200 mendoza line again, and will likely hover around the .250 mark. He has better power, better plate discipline, and higher upside as a run producer than Arcia does, and also is an ultra-positive defender, while Arcia is right-around league average.
Simply Adames would elevate this team. With the offensive depth of the Braves, a plethora of team-friendly contracts that would allow them to re-sign him if they desired, and a chance at winning the World Series, everything makes sense here for both sides. However, I think this is the least likely spot out of the three I’m listing.
Potential Suitor #2: Miami Marlins
Shortstop was a revolving door for the Miami Marlins in 2023, as four different players started at the position: Joey Wendle (81 games), Jon Berti (52 games), Garrett Hampson (26 games), and Jacob Amaya (3 games). With Wendle and Hampson gone to the Mets and the Royals, that leaves Berti and Amaya left, who are offensively limited and have a capped ceiling (Berti), and a young, unproven prospect (Amaya).
While it would make sense to give Amaya the role and see if he can grow and develop, the Marlins made the playoffs last year. For a team that desperately needs offensive upgrades, has a glut of quality pitching prospects, and would like to build off of the 2023 season’s momentum, acquiring Adames would do wonders for those improvable aspects.
Berti is best in what Garret Hampson’s role was — a super utility player who can fill in for multiple positions each week but is not a bat you have to hit every game of the season. Adames would not only be a clear upgrade over potential fits like Tim Anderson (unless he rediscovers his previous form), and would likely not cost too much to be acquired with their deep farm system.
Whether they can re-sign him is to be discovered, as the Marlins don’t operate as a prominent “big-market” team, however, they did give Giancarlo Stanton a 300 million plus deal last decade, and with a manager for years to come in Skip Schumaker and a playoff roster, Adames may be a move (or one of the moves) that pushes them into one of the higher wild-card seeds.
Potential suitor #1: Cleveland Guardians
Simply put — the Guardians had a terrible offense last year. With a .694 team OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), they were the fourth worst team in the league in that category and total runs scored, only above the pathetic A’s and the immensely disappointing White Sox and Tigers. They also ranked last in team home runs (124).
Although the Guardians are a notoriously cheap team, and have top prospect Brayan Rocchio waiting in the wings, who will likely compete for the shortstop job this spring training if they don’t acquire Adames, the combination of Gabriel Arias (-0.1 WAR) and Tyler Freeman (-0.3) WAR will not cut it next year, both offensively and defensively. Arias showed potential, but a different position is likely in his future. Enter Adames.
Despite the porous offensive numbers, the Guardians finished 11 games back of the division title, and 12 games back of the third wild card berth. Although they finished third in the division behind Detroit and Minnesota, the Guardians have a handful of proven MLB talent, and one of the MLB’s best third basemen in Jose Ramirez. With a strong rotation, including young arms Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen, and veterans Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, the Guardians have a playoff-caliber rotation already.
In a weak division that is ripe for the taking, Adames would make a huge impact on both sides of the ball. He would add home run power, which they sorely lacked last year, and above average defense at a weak defensive position in 2023. Overall, Adames would help alleviate a large chunk of their problems, while forming a strong left-side infield duo with Jose Ramirez.
Whether they’d be willing to give up prospects for Adames is still to be decided, but the fit here is clear: a bad offensive team that is in a weak division and has tradeable prospects, who need a shortstop. As a small-market team, their ability to re-sign him may be capped, but if the Guardians were to have success with Adames, that may make things much easier.
