Jed Hoyer: Smartest Man in the Schwindy City
Jed Hoyer, Tom Ricketts and the rest of the Cubs front office have been subject to intense scrutiny since late 2020, when they decided to move on from Yu Darvish’s large (albeit fair) contract, laying the groundwork for a rebuild. Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant were still hanging around at the Friendly Confines, yet the writing was pretty clearly on the wall for a team that had limped to disappointing finishes every year since 2018. The Cubs had been floating on expectations of what should have been, ever since a power outage during the 2017 NLCS against the Dodgers exposed a much more flawed group of players than 2016’s miracle run led fans and media alike to see. Most observers of the sport saw a budding dynasty, that certainly would have been contending for a World Series championship five years later in 2021 while still having the bulk of 2016’s team under contract, yet here we are on September 22nd, cheering for feel-good stories and “maybe?” prospects as a disappointing season draws to a close. Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are making playoff pushes in the Big Apple, Kris Bryant helped his team in San Francisco officially punch their ticket, and yet even still, I find it impossible to criticize nearly any move Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has made since that fateful trade of the team’s ace, Yu Darvish.
With the Cubs’ crown jewel Brennen Davis making his explosive debut in AAA Iowa last week, it seems as good a time as any to evaluate where the organization stands as opposed to when Theo Epstein decided to step away from the team prior to this season, leaving Hoyer in the driver’s seat. Ever since the 2016 season, the organization had been bleeding young, controllable talent in order to stay afloat as competitors. The 2016 trade of Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman was highly debated as an overpay, but a World Series ring, and an inconsistent career from Torres thus far has justified all concerns. The next season, the Cubs sorely needed starting pitching due to a lack of young arms coming up to supplement their aging pitching core. Theo and co. addressed this by shipping out top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease to the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox for Jose Quintana. Cease and Jimenez are currently a large part of a core marching into the playoffs, while the Cubs got mixed results from their side of the deal. It is fair to say without Quintana however, the team would not have made it into the 2017 NLCS, yet the larger issue was the fact they needed to give up young talent for pitching reinforcement, while organizations like the Dodgers, Braves, and Cardinals replenish their pitching corps with talented young arms from the farm seemingly every year. This is a problem Hoyer is looking to finally address by revamping the roster with young talent, some of it MLB ready, some of it still years from the show. The most successful organizations have a consistent pipeline to major league success from their minor league system, which was both the reason for the franchise’s ascent and downfall. Hoyer has made sweeping changes this year, and with a couple months of perspective, we can now do some judging on the results.
As had become an all-too-familiar refrain for Cubs fans, the 2020-2021 offseason was yet another where ownership was looking to prevent or shed payroll. Yu Darvish’s $23 Million owed in 2021 was the most attractive contract to other clubs after a dominant, near Cy Young level 2020 for the Japanese-born ace. The Padres sent the Cubs some scratch-off lottery ticket teenagers and 20-year-olds, as well as a placeholder veteran in Zach Davies, which fit the Cubs half-in, half-out approach to rebuilding until the late July tear-down. After starting 2021 like he left with the Cubs, earning an All-Star nod, Darvish, much like his team in general, has imploded down the stretch. He has been on the injured list, as well as putting up a 6.84 ERA over his previous 10 starts. While it would be hard to predict the season Darvish would have had in a world where he wasn’t traded this offseason, it is quite obvious it would not have been enough to change the course for a Cubs team that was trending down in a hurry. Meanwhile, those aforementioned lottery tickets might just contain some hits. After tearing apart the Arizona League to the tune of a .349/.478/.596 slashline, 19-year-old Owen Caissie was promoted to A-ball in Myrtle Beach, where he looks to be settling in nicely. The highest rated prospect at the time of the deal was 18-year-old shortstop Reginald Preciado, who has done nothing to dampen those expectations, putting up an OPS of .894 in his first professional season, while flashing the quick-twitch skills and athleticism around the diamond that make him so interesting to project in the long term. Suffice it to say, the Cubs are lucky to have made that move when they did, and it’s unlikely the Padres would do the trade over with the benefit of hindsight, as their farm system is more depleted than ever while 2021 postseason success looks highly unlikely at best.
The next move to evaluate for the Cubs would be possibly the most gut-wrenching, trading unofficial team-captain Anthony Rizzo to the New York Yankees for young outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24 year old RHP Alexander Vizcaíno. A loud majority of Cubs fans had been clamoring for the front office to extend Rizzo in his final year before heading to free agency, but Rizzo himself had rejected what turned out to be Jed Hoyer’s best and final offer. Ahead of the 2021 season, Rizzo received an offer of 5 years for $70 Million (Rosenthal, Mooney.) Rizzo would have been getting paid an average of $14 Million, less than the $16.5 Million he was making for the 2021 season, which was likely the main reason he felt insulted. Rizzo would most likely snatch that offer up in a heartbeat if given the chance again, but the Cubs made their move and aren’t looking back. Rizzo’s wRC+ had been on a decline since the world series season, interrupted by a strong 2019. Back issues proved to be chronic, consistently requiring days off throughout the long season, and seemingly sapping him of power at times. Rizzo is a team icon and leader forever, but paying him for 5 more years at the level of an elite first basemen likely would have hamstrung the Cubs for years to come. A very strong first week with the Yankees turned fans and media alike against the Cubs for making the move, but a COVID-list designation and mediocre performance, along with the Yankees fading in the playoff race, has swung things back to the Cubs’ favor. Meanwhile, the return for Rizzo looks highly promising. Kevin Alcantara has been red-hot since joining the system, putting up an OPS of 1.024 in the ACL. He has a wiry frame with great bat speed that leads scouts to believe he can supplement his power greatly by adding strength. He seems to have a patient eye at the plate and has drawn comparisons to former Cub leadoff bat Dexter Fowler. Vizcaino has shown flashes of his electric stuff, but has struggled with a high walk rate. It will be interesting to see what kind of contract Rizzo commands this offseason on the open market, but my bet would be well under what he was offered by the Cubs ahead of the season.
Javier Baez’ move to the New York Mets has been eventful to say the least, as would be expected with an electric personality and skillset like his. There have been player vs. fans mutinies, strikeouts on balls bouncing three feet off the plate, massive home runs, and game winning slides into home. Javy’s presence has certainly been missed around Wrigley, but yet again, it looks to have been a smart move by GM Jed Hoyer to move him ahead of the deadline. The Cubs were somehow able to wrestle 2020 first round pick Pete Crow-Armstrong from New York, who has drawn rave reviews from scouts for his contact ability and range in center field. Crow-Armstrong fits the bill of high contact bats Hoyer seems to want to build around for the next core, including Nico Hoerner, Nick Madrigal, and others. The Mets, much like the Yankees, have faded from playoff contention and only have Baez for another couple weeks until he hits the open market. Baez’ free agent destination should be very interesting, as a player with such high highs and low lows in his game must be very difficult to assign a dollar value.
The trade of Kris Bryant to the San Francisco Giants would be the most difficult to declare a win for Hoyer and the Cubs. Bryant has continued to perform at a very high level for the elite Giants, meanwhile the best prospect the Cubs got in return in Alexander Canario, struggled down the stretch of the minor league system after an explosive first week with the South Bend Cubs, finishing with a .693 OPS. Canario’s pitch recognition and discipline at the plate remain suspect and could hamper his potential to get on base enough at the big league level. The pitcher acquired in the deal, Caleb Killian, also had a rough debut with his new organization, only able to pitch in 15.2 innings, putting up an ERA above 4. Killian’s long term potential is still high, but for the best player the Cubs gave up, this return has thus far looked weak. The only positive spin to this deal so far would simply be avoiding a potential disaster of a contract. Bryant is represented by Scott Boras, who would have demanded an overpay in order to sign a deal ahead of the free agent market. Bryant has been to the highest of highs, winning an MVP in a World Series year, yet also the lowest of lows, where he barely hit above .200 in 2020. Bryant has also had persistent injury problems, and a very tall, athletic frame that could foreshadow difficulty in the aging process.
The most interesting development since the deadline however, has been the emergence of career journeymen Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega, and Patrick Wisdom. Schwindel has performed at an incredibly elite level since being brought to Chicago to replace Anthony Rizzo’s big shoes. He has struck out only 30 times in 175 at bats, while putting up an OPS of 1.076, which is higher than MVP candidates like Bryce Harper and Vlad Guerrero Jr. Without the sweeping changes made by Hoyer, players like these would not have had a chance to show their ability as a form of try-outs for the next competitive Cubs team. It was obvious the Cubs were no longer going to be a realistic world series competitor with the old core, and the page had to be turned. With a replenished farm system, freed up finances, and some diamonds in the rough uncovered, Jed Hoyer is sitting pretty for assembling another great team in Chicago.