Are the Yankees Legit?
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
This season has been historic for the New York Yankees.
The team has been the first to reach 50, 60, and 70 wins in baseball, accomplishing the first feat sixth-fastest in MLB history. On top of that, through their first 67 games of the season, only 14 other teams dating back to 1901 have posted a better run differential. The only teams in the franchise’s history to post a better run differential than this current team are the 1927, 1928, 1936, 1937, and 1939 Yankees. All of whom would go on to win the World Series. Something the modern-day Yankees haven’t done since 2009.
It’s not just the team, either. With 46 home runs, outfielder Aaron Judge is on pace to break Roger Maris’s single-season home run record. Judge doesn’t just lead the Majors in home runs. He holds the lead in on-base plus slugging (OPS), on-base plus slugging plus (OPS+), total bases, and runs batted in (RBI).
Judge’s record-breaking tendencies might carry into the offseason as well. With his second American League (AL) Most Valuable Player trophy within his grasp, Judge has a chance to break the record for the highest average salary held by a position player in Major League history.
Even third baseman/outfielder Matt Carpenter has seen his career brought to life. Before being signed by the Yankees, the 36-year-old slugger compiled a .671 OPS through his last three seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals. This season, however, Carpenter would rank sixth in batting average, first in on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage, and OPS in the American League if he qualified.
Because of the individual and collective success, the Yankees should be considered the World Series frontrunner, right? Surely this is a reboot of the Evil Empire that conquered the 1990s and the early aughts, right?
While the club’s 71-42 record would indicate so, there are signs elsewhere that the glass ceiling is starting to shatter. From five-game losing streaks to foot fractures to the failure of some foundational players, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees are as legit as everyone once assumed.
The first seeds of doubt sprung in St. Louis when the Cardinals polished off a three-game sweep of the Yankees, yet problems have persisted underneath the soil since mid-June.
On June 19, the Yankees held a 49-16 record with a +144 run differential and were winners of nine of their last 10. Though the Yankees increased their run differential to +205, the Bronx Bombers have a 22-23 record since and have lost seven of their last 10.
That 22-23 record since June 19 is worse than the 58-52 Baltimore Orioles and the 56-54 Chicago White Sox. It’s also barely better than the 44-65 Cincinnati Reds, the 45-66 Kansas City Royals, and 49-60 Miami Marlins, all according to Statmuse. For context, those last three teams are all fourth in their respective divisions.
This recent slide has done little to slip the Yankees from first in their division. But their play has put them in jeopardy of securing the number one seed in the AL. Second-place would still snag the team a first-round bye, but it would pit them against the Seattle Mariners.This season has been historic for the New York Yankees.
The team has been the first to reach 50, 60, and 70 wins in baseball, accomplishing the first feat sixth-fastest in MLB history. On top of that, through their first 67 games of the season, only 14 other teams dating back to 1901 have posted a better run differential. The only teams in the franchise’s history to post a better run differential than this current team are the 1927, 1928, 1936, 1937, and 1939 Yankees. All of whom would go on to win the World Series. Something the modern-day Yankees haven’t done since 2009.
It’s not just the team, either. With 44 home runs, outfielder Aaron Judge is on pace to break Roger Maris’s single-season home run record. Judge doesn’t just lead the Majors in home runs. He holds the lead in on-base plus slugging (OPS), on-base plus slugging plus (OPS+), total bases, and runs batted in (RBI).
Judge’s record-breaking tendencies might carry into the offseason as well. With his second American League (AL) Most Valuable Player trophy within his grasp, Judge has a chance to break the record for the highest average salary held by a position player in Major League history.
Even third baseman/outfielder Matt Carpenter has seen his career brought to life. Before being signed by the Yankees, the 36-year-old slugger compiled a .671 OPS through his last three seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals.
This season, however, Carpenter would rank sixth in batting average, first in on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage, and OPS in the American League if he qualified.
Because of the individual and collective success, the Yankees should be considered the World Series frontrunner, right? Surely this is a reboot of the Evil Empire that conquered the 1990s and the early aughts, right?
While the club’s 71-40 would indicate so, there are signs elsewhere that the glass ceiling is starting to shatter. From five-game losing streaks to foot fractures to the failure of some foundational players, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees are as legit as everyone once assumed.
The first seeds of doubt sprung in St. Louis when the Cardinals polished off a three-game sweep of the Yankees, yet problems have persisted underneath the soil since mid-June.
On June 19, the Yankees held a 49-16 record with a +144 run differential and were winners of nine of their last 10. Though the Yankees increased their run differential to +205, the Bronx Bombers have a 22-23 record since and have lost seven of their last 10.
That 22-23 record since June 19 is worse than the 58-52 Baltimore Orioles and the 56-54 Chicago White Sox. It’s also barely better than the 44-65 Cincinnati Reds, the 45-66 Kansas City Royals, and 49-60 Miami Marlins, all according to Statmuse. For context, those last three teams are all fourth in their respective divisions.
This recent slide has done little to slip the Yankees from first in their division. But their play has put them in jeopardy of securing the number one seed in the AL. Second-place would still snag the team a first-round bye, but it would pit them against the Seattle Mariners.
Yet of equal concern to New York’s record is the performance of their premier players. No one exemplifies that more than star pitcher Gerrit Cole. In his 10 starts since June 19, Cole is 3-3, has allowed 10 home runs, registered 87 strikeouts, and pitched to a 3.44 earned-run-average (ERA). Over his last seven starts, however, Cole has a 4.20 ERA while allowing a .681 OPS to the opposition.
His struggles over these last two months raised his ERA this season from 3.14 to 3.56 to one point. And while Cole is back down to a 3.38 mark on the season, it would be the highest ERA the right-hander’s had since 2017, when he was still a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Cole is not the only member of the rotation struggling since mid-June. Nestor Cortes is 3-1 with just 40 strikeouts and a 3.61 ERA over his last eight starts. Unlike Cole, Cortes has outperformed his 4.22 fielding-independent-pitching (FIP) during that time. Yet while Cortes has played admirably, his numbers are far from where they stood when June began.
His ERA and FIP have roughly increased by a whole run, while the OPS of opposing hitters has risen from .513 to .687 over the last two months.
Cortes’s long-term viability over these next two months is another question mark. The left-hander’s 112 innings this season is already the second-most in his career. The only year Cortes pitched more was 2018, but not by much. Through Triple and Double-A, Cortes tossed 115 innings that season. In other words, the Yankees cannot ask, nor can they rely on Cortes to pitch as much or as deep into games as they once did.
Additionally concerning is it’s not just the starting pitchers that have struggled. Closer Clay Holmes has blown two saves, coughed up one or more runs in three of his last four appearances, and allowed a baserunner in six of his last seven appearances.
New York pitchers have struggled on the whole. Since June 19, the team has a 4.08 ERA, which is 17th-best in baseball, while allowing 196 runs, the 16th-most runs, according to Statmuse. Before that, the club had a 2.79 ERA which was the best in baseball.
It’s not just pitching that has besieged the Bronx Bombers; injuries have also taken a toll. Relief pitcher Michael King has a fracture in his right elbow that will keep him out for the rest of the season, and pitcher Luis Severino is also on the shelves until September. Likewise, left Achilles tendonitis has sidelined outfielder Giancarlo Stanton since July 26, while a broken foot has the resurrected Carpenter out indefinitely.
That’s not to say that Armageddon has come to the Bronx. Over these last two months, the Yankees offense is first in home runs, tied for first in RBI, second in runs scored, third in team OBP, and fourth in team OPS. This isn’t an offensive outage. It’s a pitching problem.
Whether or not New York can fix it remains to be seen.
