2024 MLB Projected Standings
AL East
New York Yankees(Division Winner): The New York Yankees have the talent to win it all. There’s even more hope this season with Juan Soto joining the lineup and New York actively in the trade market for a front-line starter. Adding that would certainly put New York over the top, but I can’t ignore the fact that this club hasn’t even been to the World Series since 2009. With the injury concerns that come with having on a relatively older team, there’s just enough hesitation with the Yankees in 2024.
Baltimore Orioles(Wild Card): The Baltimore Orioles suffered a blow to their starting rotation to open spring training, which raises significant questions about the club’s pitching depth. While both Baltimore and New York have major injury concerns, the Orioles are younger, with top prospects who could debut quickly and depth in the farm system to acquire any player available at the trade deadline. It will be a neck-and-neck race between the Orioles and the Yankees all year.
Toronto Blue Jays(Wild Card): The Toronto Blue Jays' big addition this offseason was signing designated hitter Justin Turner. Outside of that, ownership seems to be banking almost entirely on a talented roster rebounding after a down year in 2023.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Tampa Bay Rays are always competitive and consistently maintain one of the best farm systems in baseball. However, Wander Franco is likely never playing baseball again and Tyler Glasnow is gone. Making the playoffs as a Wild Card team is doable and you can always bet on the Rays delivering a few breakout players each year. The loss of top talent, however, leaves enough hesitation to believe Tampa Bay is experiencing a dip.
Boston Red Sox: Marginal improvements team-wide are possible, but with the lack of impact additions after last year’s issues paired with worries at the back of the rotation, competing simply doesn’t seem to be atop the priority list for the Red Sox right now. When players and front office execs privately complain about the lack of commitment from ownership to improving the roster, it highlights the organizational issue. Boston has Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, but the rotation is a major weakness and the bottom of the lineup could be abysmal.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins (Division Winner): Much like last season, arguably more so in 2024, the Minnesota Twins won’t have much competition in the AL Central. The Cleveland Guardians pitching will provide a fight and the Detroit Tigers are on the rise, but the Twins have a .600-plus winning percentage in three of their last five seasons. The departures of Sonny Gray and Jorge Polanco will hurt, but Minnesota does have a lot of infield depth. There’s just enough talent here to win 82-plus games, especially with Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan atop the rotation and supported by a good pen.
Cleveland Indians: It’s essentially the same Cleveland Guardians roster as last year. Theoretically, Cleveland could rebound from its 16-game decline from 2022 to 2024, but the numbers last season reflected that this just wasn’t a good team. Nothing was done to improve the outfield or lack of power and Shane Bieber could be traded at the deadline. There’s just very little reason to believe Cleveland is a contender in 2024.
Chicago White Sox: The very fact that Tony La Russa still gets to be involved in baseball operations highlights mismanagement at the highest level. With that acknowledged, Chicago is finally recognizing it needs a complete teardown and that should result in Luis Robert Jr. being traded this year to help overhaul the farm system.
Detroit Tigers: The time is coming for the Detroit Tigers. Even with a few misses on prospects and the disastrous Javier Baez contract, the Tigers are steadily improving. Tarik Skubal leads a rotation that should be better in 2024 with added depth in the middle of the rotation, while Mark Canha and Gio Urshella add much-needed help to the end of the lineup. I’m not ready to bet on Detroit posting a winning record, but that time will come in 2025.
Kansas City Royals: At least the Kansas City Royals are trying. They’re going to trot out something closer to an MLB-caliber rotation this season and the trio of MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr, and Vinnie Pasquantino near the top of the lineup provides reason for excitement. Yes, the bottom of the batting order is bad and not a single starter in the Royals rotation will likely post a sub-4 ERA, but at least this team should be better than it was last year. The rebuild is finally happening, although, it’s hard to trust the people behind it.
AL West
Houston Astros(Division Winner): The Houston Astros rotation was decimated by injuries in 2023, but this club still came close to reaching the World Series. One season later, the core of Jose Altuve-Yordan Alvarez-Alex Bregman-Kyle Tucker could all earn All-Star selections in 2024 and Houston’s starting rotation should be excellent if frequent IL trips can be avoided. While this might not be the best Astros roster in the last few years, Houston just needs to make it October to go on a run and we’ve learned to never count out the Astros in the postseason.
Texas Rangers(Wild Card): The Texas Rangers were the surprise team of MLB in 2023, as they went from losing over 100 games two years ago to winning the World Series. Heading into the 2024 season, I love the Rangers lineup, especially since Corey Seager is returning from injury. Unfortunately, Texas’ pitching depth will be tested early with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom sidelined for at least half the season. Still, the Rangers are now similar to the Astros in that all that’s required is making the playoffs and being healthy in October. If Texas can do that, it honestly has a good shot at another deep playoff run.
Seattle Mariners: Budget issues prevented the Seattle Mariners from making meaningful contributions to their roster this winter, meaning a few additions will be asked to be the difference-makers this year. Fortunately for Seattle, it has one of the best starting rotations in baseball, and over a 162-game season, that’s more important than anything to make the playoffs. However, the other side of the is a bullpen already dealing with injuries and some worries at the end of the lineup. Still, there’s enough firepower when combined with the stellar rotation to have confidence in projecting Seattle to at the very least contend for a playoff spot.
Los Angeles Angels: There’s no real reason for excitement with the Los Angeles Angels in 2024. Shohei Ohtani is gone, Mike Trout is a year older and Anthony Rendon has very little interest in playing baseball. The Angels lineup might still put out above-average production, but that doesn’t mean much when you have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball and Trout is an injury risk.
Oakland Athletics: There’s very little to say about the 2024 Oakland Athletics except for the fact that, much like last season, the fans deserve better. Alex Wood is a rebound candidate in 2024, while Ruan Noda, Zack Gelof, and Shea Langeliers provide some excitement for the future. Still, this is the worst team in MLB and owner John Fisher will be responsible for a lot of MLB teams picking up easy wins this season.
NL East
Atlanta Braves(Division Winner): The Atlanta Braves have posted a winning percentage of .547 or better in each of their last six seasons and are coming off consecutive 100-win campaigns. There are three MVP-caliber bats in the lineup (Ronald Acuña Jr, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson) along with All-Star hitters Ozie Albies and Sean Murphy. When you add that to this excellent pitching staff, now featuring Chris Sale as a back-end starter, there’s no reason to think the Braves won’t have one of the best records in MLB this year and can challenge the Dodgers for the NL crown.
Philadelphia Phillies(Wild Card): The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t add anything this offseason, which is a bit of a letdown for a perennial World Series contender. There are major questions towards the back of the rotation and those will be amplified if Ranger Suarez or Taijuan Walker struggle. Still, the Phillies are the second-best team in the NL East and the National League itself is top-heavy enough for the Phillies to snag a Wild Card spot.
New York Mets: The Mets blew up by the All-Star Break in 2023, forcing the front office to ship off the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. It was the right thing to do, but after losing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency, New York heads into Opening Day with Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea headlining its rotation. If Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez can deliver strong campaigns, the Mets lineup should be very good. Unfortunately for New York, it doesn’t have the pitching to be taken seriously as a contender.
Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara is sidelined for the season and the Miami Marlins made marginal improvements to their batting order. While Miami has the starting pitching depth to overcome Alcantara’s injury and even part ways with a starter at some point this year, a pedestrian lineup and bullpen leave serious doubt about the Marlins doing anything other than fighting for a .500 record.
Washington Nationals: The Washington Nationals are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball once again, but at least their farm system is improving. Neither CJ Abrams nor Keibert Ruiz look like they’ll develop into building blocks for Washington long-term, but there’s more hope on the pitching side. What’s far more important for the Nationals is the eventual arrival of some of their top prospects.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs(Division Winner): Before the re-signing of Cody Bellinger, the Chicago Cubs would’ve fallen a spot behind the St. Louis Cardinals in my predictions. However, Bellinger is the piece that was sorely missing from the Cubs lineup, and with him back, Chicago now has six potential bats that can clear a .700 OPS. As for Chicago’s pitching, Justin Steele is the only trusted front-line starter, but Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga offered some upside. Plus, Kyle Hendricks has proven to be an innings-eater who can go five-plus and get quality starts. In a tight division race, that could be just enough for Chicago.
St. Louis Cardinals(Wild Card): Starting pitching was the St. Louis Cardinals’ biggest problem last season. Not only did they land an ace (Sonny Gray), but they also strengthened the middle of their rotation with Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Neither will be above-average starters at this point in their career, but they will allow St. Louis to be a lot more competitive in close games, especially with this defense behind him. The NLDS feels like a ceiling for this Cardinals team, but just making the postseason would be an improvement over last year’s results.
Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes is gone and Brandon Woodruff is sidelined for the year, turning a once-dominant Milwaukee Brewers rotation into a weakness. Freddy Peralta has shown stretches of being a front-line starter, but it’s not wise to bet on him staying healthy and maintaining that over a full season. While the Brewers’ lineup should be considerably better than it has in years past, the decline in pitching feels like the anchor that will pull the Brewers down in the standings.
Cincinnati Reds: While plenty of teams around baseball spend years rebuilding and then slowly start to climb their way back, the Cincinnati Reds are working with an accelerated timetable. The Reds improved at first base with Jeimer Candelario over Joey Votto and there’s some intriguing upside with Matt McClain, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, and Noelvi Marte. I consider Elly De La Cruz a wild card, however, because he slashes .200/288/359 with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate in his final 220 plate appearances. As for the Reds pitching, it has a considerably higher ceiling than we’ve seen in previous seasons and while ERAs will be elevated in that hitter-friendly ballpark, Cincinnati can’t be ruled out for an NL Central title in 2024.
Pittsburgh Pirates: I mentioned slow rebuilds and that’s exactly what the Pittsburgh Pirates are going through. This club hasn’t won 80 games since the 2018 season and while they made small improvements this winter, they still don’t have much impact talent outside of Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Mitch Keller. Henry Davis could get this club’s win total up a bit if he improves, but there’s long-term uncertainty about whether he’ll hit enough to justify playing in the outfield or can be good enough defensively to stick at catcher.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Los Angeles Dodgers are all-in and while we’ve seen that backfire before(see the New York Mets), the difference is Dodgers’ ownership added onto an already loaded roster. There’s little doubt that the Dodgers are one of the three most talented teams in MLB and the MVP-caliber bats in the lineup are reason enough alone to pick them to make the playoffs. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow leading the rotation and Clayton Kershaw eventually returning, that’s what makes the Dodgers a World Series favorite.
Arizona Diamondbacks(Wild Card): Kudos to the Arizona Diamondbacks for staying aggressive after last season’s incredible run. I fully expect the Diamondbacks rotation to be even better in 2024 with the addition of Eduardo Rodrigue. As for the lineup, bringing in Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson should provide some much-needed pop. While winning the NL pennant seems doubtful, Arizona should be among the NL clubs to snag a Wild Card spot.
San Francisco Giants: The San Francisco Giants have made a few quality additions this offseason, fostering a little more confidence in a lineup that now includes Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler. Unfortunately for Giants fans, San Francisco’s starting rotation is filled with red flags once you get past Logan Webb. There isn’t another starter on this staff we’d trust over a 162-game campaign and until another front-line pitcher is added, I see no reason to forecast the Giants as a playoff threat.
San Diego Padres: It’s the end of an era. The San Diego Padres started slashing payroll this offseason and it’s likely not going to be the last time that happens. The turning point for this franchise was the passing of owner Peter Seidler, who ran this club like fans want to see most MLB teams run. While a few of the remaining faces will help San Diego remain competitive, there’s just not enough pitching or talent in the bottom half of the lineup to view San Diego as a contender.
Colorado Rockies: The Colorado Rockies are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, a title they became familiar with in 2023. Colorado’s pitching was never good, but elbow surgeries to some proven starters have only made it worse. While the Rockies lineup will produce quite a few runs at Coors Field, it will rarely be enough to catch up with what the pitching staff surrenders to opponents. A rebuild is so desperately needed in Colorado.
