The Ideal Dominic Smith Destination
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Before Pete Alonso powered the New York Mets offense, another first-base prospect aspired to.
Unlike Alonso, the Mets deemed Dominic Smith worthy of a first-round pick. The scouting world agreed with the club’s decision. Before playing an inning in the minor leagues, Baseball America dubbed Smith the 92nd best prospect in 2014.
Two years after, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus agreed and named Smith a top-100 prospect. MLB followed suit and named Smith to the 2016 United States future team, where he shared a lineup with Andrew Benintendi, Alex Bregman, and Dansby Swanson.
Though six years have passed since that game, Smith finds himself in the same place he did back then: The minor leagues. Due to Alonso’s ascension as one of the National League’s best hitters, Smith has lost the role the Mets drafted him to play.
The only role left for Smith is on the bench, yet he has been reticent to accept it. Before being demoted Smith said, “If there’s a team out there that wants me to play and wants to let me play, I would love to play every day.”
After Smith hit .266/.347/.438 in Triple-AAA Syracuse, other teams may be ready to consider giving Smith the role he craves. But who?
In the history of baseball, arguably no team has been more willing to oblige an underdog than the Oakland Athletics. Given Smith’s draft pedigree and acclaim as a prospect, he could easily fit into that group.
What makes Smith attractive to Oakland aside from these features is his on-the-field production. Especially how often he can get on base.
When the A’s came of prominence in the early 2000s, they did so with an emphasis on a player’s on-base-percentage (OBP). They believed that while they could not afford superstar players, they could replace their production through walks.
Through six seasons, Smith has shown himself capable of this feat. In 2019 and 2022, Smith had a walk rate above the league average. While his 8.9% walk rate this season is the second-highest of his career, it may be his most impressive.
Due to his offensive struggles elsewhere - a .186 batting average and a .256 slugging percentage - opposing pitchers do not and have not treated Smith as a threat. Yet despite that, Smith was and still is drawing his walks. In 14 games with Syracuse, Smith’s .347 OBP was seventh-highest on the team.
Smith’s profile also fits Oakland’s roster. While first baseman Seth Brown has struggled to hit the ball just as much as Smith, he leads Oakland in runs-batted-in (RBI) and on-base plus slugging (OPS). Displacing Brown in the lineup for Smith is simply a non-starter.
But Smith could find a home as Oakland’s designated hitter (DH). Ironically, Smith would have to replace former teammate Jed Lowrie in the lineup. A sensible move with Lowrie's 38-years-of-age and his lack of offensive production.
As for what a possible trade could look like, Oakland would not have to fork over pitcher Frankie Montas. Smith is not a star. He’s seeking redemption. The Mets, however, should be seeking reliever Lou Trivino should trade talks emerge.
Like Lowrie, Trivino is in the midst of a career-worst year. His 8.66 earned run average (ERA) in 17.2 innings paints a nightmarish image. Yet, the 5.52 difference between his ERA and his fielding independent pitching (FIP) is the second-highest in all of baseball. Indicating while Trivino has been far from perfect, his defense has been even worse, leading to an inflation in his ERA.
Trivino’s career 3.70 ERA coming into this season proves that he can still be a capable reliever for clubs. He simply needs to land on one that can support him defensively. With the Mets meeting the bill and the need, the deal makes too much sense for both clubs.
Given Oakland’s 23-45 record, the organization will not be winning soon. They can afford to scoop up Smith and provide him the everyday at-bats he deserves. And should he make the most of them, Smith could be on the roster until the 2025 offseason when he hits unrestricted free agency.
The perfect opportunity for Smith, the Athletics, and the Mets is waiting. All three parties have to realize it.
