Carlos Rodón: The Undeserved Substitute
Credit: Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group
When Major League Baseball announced its rosters for next week’s All-Star game, there were obvious inclusions in the National League. There were the perennial All-Stars and the future Hall of Famers. Players like Clayton Kershaw, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Trae Turner, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout.
Likewise, there were offensive league leaders, like hits champion Paul Goldschmidt, home run leader Kyle Schwarber, and runs batted in (RBI) collector Pete Alonso. Then there were the league leaders in pitching. Earned run average (ERA) and win leader Tony Gonsolin, innings-eater Sandy Alcántara, strikeout accumulator Corbin Burnes and saves leader Josh Hader. And yet San Francisco Giants pitcher Carlos Rodón, the league leader in fielding independent pitching (FIP) - a statistic that measures a pitcher's effectiveness by eliminating the involvement of the defense- did not make the All-Star team. At least not at first.
The last player to lead the NL in FIP to not make the All-Star team was Greg Maddux in 1993. In other words, Rodón’s exclusion is unparalleled across the last 30 years of baseball history. With MLB announcing Rodón will replace Hader on the team due to injury, Maddux’s streak still holds. But Rodón’s initial exclusion is extraordinary, especially considering the context of his play this season. Over 17 starts, San Francisco’s southpaw has a 2.70 ERA, 152 ERA+, 1.060 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP), and 124 strikeouts, all of which are in the top 10 among NL starts. These stats underscore how clutch Rodón has been.
With the bases empty, opposing batters are slashing .216/.284/.324 with just three home runs. On the rare occasion that the opposition breaks through the 29-year-old’s four-pitch mix, Rodon makes sure he holds the line. With runners on, opponents have a .184/.245/.241 slash line while striking out 53 times. And when in scoring position, they have a .211/.279/.237 slash while striking out 30 times. Rodón hasn’t just been clutch with men on base either. He’s been at his best against winning teams. In eight starts against winning teams, the left-hander touts a 2.83 ERA, an ERA inflated by a start against the Cardinals in which Rodón allowed 10 runs. If you remove that game, his ERA against winning teams is just 1.02. When the Giants need him at his best, Rodon delivers.
However, no stat illustrates Rodón’s All-Star season more than his wins above replacement (WAR). For perspective, only five other NL starters have accumulated more WAR than Rodón, according to Baseball-Reference. Four out of those pitchers made the All-Star game. The only exception is Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola, yet San Francisco’s ace has a lower ERA and ERA+ than Nola. Fangraphs WAR calculation shows a much different story.
Rodón's 3.7 WAR is tied with ex-Giant Kevin Gausman for the most in all of baseball. Even more impressive is that Rodón and Gausman are .5 WAR ahead of Max Fried, whose fourth, and .7 WAR more than Shane McClanahan, whose seventh. They are not just leading the pack. They are running away from it. All of this makes baseball's refusal of Rodón all the more confounding. Especially when examining the seven starters picked instead of him.
From afar, rewarding Kershaw with a ninth All-Star appearance makes sense. His 2.40 ERA, 237 ERA+, 1.80 FIP, and 0.725 WHIP would all be among the top ten in each statistic. But therein lies the catch. These stats would be some of the best in the league, but Kershaw hasn’t pitched enough to be considered a qualified starter. Due to a back injury, Kershaw has only made 11 starts and pitched 63.2 innings for the Dodgers. That’s seven fewer starts and 66.1 fewer innings than Alcantara and six fewer starts and 36.1 fewer innings than Rodón.
In fact, no NL starting pitcher has made the All-Star game this century with at least 11 starts, which makes Kershaw’s selection all the more peculiar. The same argument could be made against Reds pitcher Luis Castillo. Like Kershaw, Cincinnati’s 29-year-old ace has been incredible thus far with a 2.92 ERA, 158 ERA+, and a 3.04 FIP, all of which would be career-bests if the season ended today. However, like Kershaw, Castillo has far fewer starts than his fellow All-Stars. With the Reds having played 88 games and Castillo having pitched 71 innings, he cannot be considered a qualified starter among league leaders. And yet Castillo is considered qualified to get a nod over Rodón despite having a worse season statistically and pitching fewer games.
Thankfully, Rodón has been rewarded with a trip to Los Angeles for next week’s All-Star game. It’s only right. It’s only fair…It’s only a shame it took an injury to make MLB recognize Rodón.
